Clown-Joy of Failure: The Secrets to Genuine Success

Book Description

The summer and fall of 1998 witnessed some of the most turbulent financial markets the world has ever seen. The implosion of the Russian financial markets and investors' ensuing flight to quality propelled the giant hedge-fund, long-term Capital Management, to the brink of collapse and left the investment portfolios of many of Wall Street's major banks and brokerage houses teetering on the brink. The US equity market dropped precipitously at the end of August and continued over the next month to experience levels of volatility not seen since the major crash of October 1987. Yet, within months of the August sell-off, US stocks had bounced back to new highs. How can markets fall so fast and recover so quickly?Bruce Jacobs sifts through the history of modern finance, from the efficient market hypothesis to behavioral psychology and chaos theory, to determine the cause of recent market crashes. He finds that some investment strategies, especially those based on theories that ignore the human element, can self-destruct, taking markets down with them. Ironically, some strategies that purport to reduce the risk of investing can pose the greater danger.Of particular concern is a trading strategy that grew out the option pricing model developed by the late Fisher Black and Nobel laureates Myron Scholes and Robert Merton. Used by market professionals, this strategy, known as option replication, requires mechanistic selling as stock prices decline and buying as stock prices rise. When a large enough number of investors engage in this type of trend-following dynamic hedging, their trading demands can sweep markets along with them, elevating stock prices at some times and causing dramatic price drops at others.Dynamic hedging associated with some $100 billion in option-replication strategies caused a US stock market crash in 1987 that wiped out almost a quarter of US equity value and ignited market crashes around the world. Today, the same dynamic hedging underlies hundreds of billions of dollars in institutional and retail products. Capital Ideas and Market Realities uncovers the hidden risks these products pose for market stability and investor wealth.Visit the author's website at http://www.cimrbook.com for further information.

Customer Reviews:

A Fascinating Work about Today's Financial Alchemy.......2000-07-12

he book provides an extremely enlightening treatment of arcane financial strategies that have derived from Nobel Laureate winning option pricing theory. It is a well-written description of how very smart people are able to "outwit" other supposed very smart people by promising something for nothing. There will always be those who will dream up complicated strategies that purport to promise high return for low risk and thus demand a premium for providing their strategy. The book reminded me of Albert Einstein's work for the Swiss Patent Office at the turn of the century. He would daily receive applications for new and different perpetual motion ideas. Sometimes the ideas were so complicated Einstein could not readily find their flaw. (Finally, he encouraged the patent office to pass a ruling stating that anyone wishing to patent something which broke the second law of thermodynamics had to submit an actual working unit.)

Portfolio insurance was the first large scale application of option pricing theory. Long-Term Capital Management, a highly leveraged hedge fund partnered by the Nobelists, was the second large scale application. Both promised free lunches. It is easy for the disciplined, long-term, individual investor to look at the 1987 crash and the LTCM debacle and conclude that it doesn't matter. The ones who were harmed the most were the purveyors of these supposed perpetual motion machines as well as the investors who "played with this fire". In fact, however, Jacobs' book is a wake-up call that these new financial strategies have become so far reaching, that they can have significant impact not only on the financial markets, but on the global economy as well. The missing element in the book is a way for regulators to rein in an industry that is out of control and return it to its basic purpose: moving money from people that have it (investors) to people that need it and educating the investor on the risk/reward tradeoffs. The industry subrole of shifting risk from people who cannot accept it (e.g. farmers) to those who can (speculators) is also valid, however, it has become so pervasive and sophisticated that it begs for a return to sanity. Absent that, Jacobs' book is an eye-opener, and a must read for anyone hoping to cope with today's complicated markets.

Poorly written.......2000-06-15

This is a badly written, repetitive and self-serving account, largely, of the foolishness of "portflio insurance." That things which are "just like" something else may not be so in reality, and that magic fixes in the market (which after all fly in the face of the rational-expectations/efficient-market hypotheses which often are built into the view of the market being relied on) I guess needs to be pointed out regularly, since hope of quick, uninformed, and painless fixes seem to reoccur with each new wave of financial charlatans and the greed they feed on. Jacobs does point out such problems for a particular, rather bizarre episode, and suggests, not too coherently, that such "scams" are still prevalent. However, He does this in a horribly repetitive and self-laudatory way that is not really very clearly argued.

A Fascinating Work about Today's Financial Alchemy.......2000-06-07

The book provides an extremely enlightening treatment of arcane financial strategies that have derived from Nobel Laureate winning option pricing theory. It is a well-written description of how very smart people are able to "outwit" other supposed very smart people by promising something for nothing. There will always be those who will dream up complicated strategies that purport to promise high return for low risk and thus demand a premium for providing their strategy. The book reminded me of Albert Einstein's work for the Swiss Patent Office at the turn of the century. He would daily receive applications for new and different perpetual motion ideas. Sometimes the ideas were so complicated Einstein could not readily find their flaw. (Finally, he encouraged the patent office to pass a ruling stating that anyone wishing to patent something which broke the second law of thermodynamics had to submit an actual working unit.) Portfolio insurance was the first large scale application of option pricing theory. Long-Term Capital Management, a highly leveraged hedge fund partnered by the Nobelists, was the second large scale application. Both promised free lunches. It is easy for the disciplined, long-term, individual investor to look at the 1987 crash and the LTCM debacle and conclude that it doesn't matter. The ones who were harmed the most were the purveyors of these supposed perpetual motion machines as well as the investors who "played with this fire". In fact, however, Jacobs' book is a wake-up call that these new financial strategies have become so far reaching, that they can have significant impact not only on the financial markets, but on the global economy as well. The missing element in the book is a way for regulators to rein in an industry that is out of control and return it to its basic purpose: moving money from people that have it (investors) to people that need it and educating the investor on the risk/reward tradeoffs. The industry subrole of shifting risk from people who cannot accept it (e.g. farmers) to those who can (speculators) is also valid, however, it has become so pervasive and sophisticated that it begs for a return to sanity. Absent that, Jacobs' book is an eye-opener, and a must read for anyone hoping to cope with today's complicated markets.

Disappointing!.......2000-05-01

After reading Bernstein's Capital Ideas, a cheerleading book for lognormal finance theory, which gushes over heroes, I had high expectations for Jacobs' criticism Bernstein's viewpoint. But Jacobs' sole argument seems to be that portfolio insurance was a bad idea, and he repeats it too often. Many chapters are simply too repetitive and were written as if they'd been cut and pasted from different badly-written review articles. Even though the book is post-LTCM (post 10/98) most of the book is taken by with attacking of LOR's pre-1987 idea of portfolio insurance, while the far more fascinating and more recent case of LTCM and the near collapse of the global finance system is hardly discussed. I recommend instead "The Vandal's Crown" and "Inventing Money".

Book Description

Probably the best survey and overview to date, this volume contains all the relevant Directives and Regulations on the sensitive and often politicized issues of asylum and migration as adopted by the European Union through 2004. The Directives have been included in a consumer-friendly manner, with an extensive index. Experts, students, parliamentarians, policy makers, the media, lawyers, civil servants and the individuals concerned will easily be able to trace articles and references and their meaning in this Handbook.

Book Description

An international symposium on `Ocean, River and Lakes: Energy and Substance Transfers at Interfaces' was held in Nantes, France in October 1996. It was the third International Joint Conference on Limnology and Oceanography which brings together specialists of both environments. Considered to be necessary in Europe, this confrontation of two different aspects of common subjects could produce innovative approaches. The main purpose concerns scientific researches relative to the interfaces between various aquatic environment compartments. The principal treated topics are bioavailability and mobility of substances, influence of biotic and abiotic factors on transfers, and fluxes at the interfaces. It is particularly interesting to note the contribution of Limnologists and Oceanographers on the impact of nutrients and pollutants, and flux quantification of river basin inputs. As well as scientists, this book is also of interest to all engineers and consultants involved in teaching and working in aquatic management, restoration and enhancement.

Book Description

In addition to providing information about ancient environments and macroevolution, microfossils can be used to correlate the absolute ages of rocks. Following the development of biostratigraphy from classical origins into petroleum exploration and deep-ocean drilling, this survey explores in depth the surprisingly wide application of biostratigraphic methods. The book will be essential reading for students and researchers working in basin analysis, sequence stratigraphy, palaeoceanography, palaeobiology and related fields.

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a must-have innovation in the study of the fossil records

Microfossils
Howard Armstrong , and Martin Brasier
Manufacturer: Blackwell Publishing Limited
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0632052791

Book Description

Microfossils is the definitive guide to all the major microfossil groups. In recent years a greater understanding of species ' concepts and stratigraphical ranges, advances in the completeness of the microfossil record and the advent of molecular techniques in classification have led to major changes in the classification and applications of microfossils. This new edition of Microfossils has been restructured and rewritten to take into account these significant advances to provide a complete guide to taxonomy, phylogeny, ecology and palaeoecology of microfossils and their applications.This new edition includes:major revisions incorporating the latest available research;a new section on isotopes, and on applications in stratigraphy, geothermometry and evolution;coverage of the major developments in the use of microfossils in palaeo-oceanography and palaeoclimatology; andphotographs to support the line drawings.Microfossils is an essential reference tool and laboratory guide for undergraduate and graduate students of micropalaeontology.

Customer Reviews:

a must-have innovation in the study of the fossil records.......2007-03-01

PaleoBase: Macrofossils Part 2.0: Ammonoids, Bivalves, Coleoids, Gastropods, and other Mollusca (CD-ROM) edited by Norman Macleod, contributions by Staff Natural History Museum, London England (Blackwell Publishing) said though three in separately issued CD-ROMs is likely to become the basis by which students and scientists their fossil taxonomy. Rich in visual detail these records are likely to become a touchstone for basic understanding of our fossil records geologically and in evolutionary demonstrations of the persistence and change of basic forms of life in the fossil record. Highly recommended for all serious students and scientists as a resource for studying fossils.

FOSSILS AND STRATA NUMBER 9. LATE PRECAMBRIAN microfossils FROM VISINGSO BEDS IN SOUTHERN SWEDEN.

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FOSSILS AND STRATA NUMBER 9. LATE PRECAMBRIAN microfossils FROM VISINGSO BEDS IN SOUTHERN SWEDEN.

Manufacturer: Universitetsforlaget Oslo
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000HGF44Y

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Introduction to Microfossils
Daniel J. Jones
Manufacturer: Harper & Brothers
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
ASIN: B0000EGMXC

Introduction to microfossils (Harper's geoscience series)

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Introduction to microfossils (Harper's geoscience series)
Daniel J Jones
Manufacturer: Harper
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

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Introduction to Microfossils.
Daniel J. Jones
Manufacturer: Publisher Unknown
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
ASIN: B000UY83CS

Late Precambrian microfossils from the Visingo beds in southern Sweden (Fossils and strata)

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Late Precambrian microfossils from the Visingo beds in southern Sweden (Fossils and strata)
Gonzalo Vidal
Manufacturer: Universitetsforl
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

MICROFOSSIL ANALYSIS OF SOME LOWER GONDWANA COAL SEAMS OF WEST BOKARO, BIHAR

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MICROFOSSIL ANALYSIS OF SOME LOWER GONDWANA COAL SEAMS OF WEST BOKARO, BIHAR
K. R. SURANGE
Manufacturer: Unknown
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000S571ZO

MICROFOSSIL BIOSTRATIGRAPHY OF THE SAGE BREAKS SHALE (UPPER CRETACEOUS) IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING THE MOUNTAIN GEOLOGIST Vol. 13, No. 4

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MICROFOSSIL BIOSTRATIGRAPHY OF THE SAGE BREAKS SHALE (UPPER CRETACEOUS) IN NORTHEASTERN WYOMING THE MOUNTAIN GEOLOGIST Vol. 13, No. 4
Michael J. Evetts
Manufacturer: The Rocky Mountain Association of Geologists
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000RRTAB6

Microfossil Correlation of California Lower Tertiary Sections: A Comparison

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Microfossil Correlation of California Lower Tertiary Sections: A Comparison
Richard Z Poore
Manufacturer: UNITED STATES GOVT PRINT OFFIC
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000TLGVFS

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Space-Time- Matter....

An exciting new theory uniting geometry and matter

Space - Time - Matter: Modern Kaluza-Klein Theory
Paul S. Wesson
Manufacturer: World Scientific Publishing Company
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Astrophysics & Space Science | Astronomy | Science | Subjects | Books
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Five-dimensional Physics: Classical And Quantum Consequences of Kaluza-klein Cosmology

The Road to Reality: A Complete Guide to the Laws of the Universe

The Trouble With Physics: The Rise of String Theory, The Fall of a Science, and What Comes Next

A First Course in General Relativity

Hiding in the Mirror : The Mysterious Allure of Extra Dimensions, from Plato to String Theory and Beyond

ASIN: 9810235887

Customer Reviews:

Space-Time- Matter...........2007-03-28

I wanted to buy a copy of this for my boyfriend, but they said the first edition was sold out and that the second edition would only be out "soon" in 2007. So, if you've got a copy of the first edition, hold onto it, because I think it's very good (or if you don't need it, let me know). My roommate had a copy, and it's the easiest way I found to get to know about how to match up Einstein relativity with Planck quantum mechanics. Every chapter has an Introduction and Conclusion in text, with the equations in the sections inbetween. If somebody can write a book like this on cosmology with secret dimensions, why can't they all be like this?

An exciting new theory uniting geometry and matter.......2002-01-24

Paul Wesson's book offers an fascinating overview of higher dimensional field theories, coupled with a comprehensive account of his theory of induced matter and a compendium of applications of this approach. A highly worthwhile book for any student of physics or researcher in the field.

Book Description

This concluding volume to a comprehensive overview of Armenian literature brings together superb translations of works central to Armenian identity, from the eighteenth century onward.

Book Description

The University of Chicago Readings in Western Civilization (nine volumes) makes available to students and teachers a unique selection of primary documents, many in new translations. These readings, prepared for the highly praised Western civilization sequence at the University of Chicago, were chosen by an outstanding group of scholars whose experience teaching that course spans almost four decades. Each volume includes rarely anthologized selections as well as standard, more familiar texts; a bibliography of recommended parallel readings; and introductions providing background for the selections. Beginning with Periclean Athens and concluding with twentieth-century Europe, these source materials enable teachers and students to explore a variety of critical approaches to important events and themes in Western history.

Individual volumes provide essential background reading for courses covering specific eras and periods. The complete nine-volume series is ideal for general courses in history and Western civilization sequences.

Book Description

This entertaining yet serious book examines the probability of apocalyptic scenarios the world could face in the future. Exploring all types of disasters, including natural crises like flooding, famine, asteroids, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, as well as man-made disasters such as nuclear war, and biological and chemical terrorism, this guide thoroughly evaluates and rates the likelihood of each possible event. A history of previous global catastrophes—the extinction of dinosaurs, the droughts faced by the Mayans, and the poisoning of the Roman Empire—is also included. Concluding chapters investigate ways in which mankind can avoid earth's total destruction.

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A little ridiculous at times, but also chilling at times
Hysterical and for the most part, unrealistic
No depth but fun and closer to reality than our government
Exploitation at it's worst
Excellent, Well-Researched, Real Page Turner

Doomsday: End Of The World Scenarios
Richard Moran
Manufacturer: Alpha
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

General | Politics | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: 0028643151

Customer Reviews:

A little ridiculous at times, but also chilling at times.......2007-02-27

You have to take a lot of this book with a grain of salt, but pretty much all of what you read in this book could some day happen, especially global warming, which despite what the expert below says, IS HAPPENING (and I am a conservative republican!!!). The Cyberterrorism chapter was probably the most ridiculous. But it is still interesting and chilling to read.

Hysterical and for the most part, unrealistic.......2005-08-31

This guy must be a democrat-since god knows when they've been screaming about global warming, WMD attacks and AIDS /Ebola epidemic.
So far none of the above happened. If we're smart(and there is no liberals in the White House) it probably won't happen in the future. However, I have to debunk this guy's theories about the end of days.

1) Global warming-possible in theory. Doesn't mean it will happen. They've been screaming about it hysterically for the last 20 years" It will happen in a few years! Be warned!" Nothing so far.
2) Plagues-once again-anything can happen but doesn't mean that it will. Mr Moran seems to think that AIDS is the biggest crisis the world is facing. Sorry to disappoint but AIDS have started with gays, drug users and prostitutes and its still there. You don't want to get AIDS- don't have unprotected sex and don't use drugs. Then, there is Ebola, Lassa Fever and various other horrible diseases. The solution to not getting infected with one of these nasty bugs is simple-DON'T GO TO AFRICA. Those illnesses(and many others) originated there and fortunately, they haven't been exported. Nothing there for any civilized person to do anyway.
3) Ice Age-refer to answer number 1
4) Weapons of mass distruction-well, author's solution, I'm sure, would be -DON'T HAVE ANY WEAPONS! Sarcasm aside, the only way to prevent some nut committing suicide with atomic bomb in his backpack is not to let him in the country in the first place. Of course,all we can do is to pray it won't happen.
5) Volcanic eruptions-they happen all the time and there is not much anyone can do about it. Best thing to do-don't live next to a volcano! Perhaps, poor saps living next to Mount Rainier should move-it really is a disaster waiting to happen.
6) Asteroid hitting Earth-a truly scary proposition but ...there is hope. According to media there is no way we can deflect or destroy an asteroid coming toward Earth. I, for one, find it hard to believe. Just like I find hard to believe that Star Wars doesn't exist. Lefties think just because there was no headline in the newspaper saying"Death Ray weapon built!" its not there. Personally, if I was the military I'd keep my mouth shut about it and shoot everyone who can't. I believe we have weapons and technology that public doesn't know about. Hopefully, that will solve an asteroid problem.
The end conclusion-the only reasonable threat is from Asteroid. You can safely skip the rest of the book

No depth but fun and closer to reality than our government.......2005-05-03

This is a quickly produced book that is an easy read on a plane. It will not give you any kind of depth on any of the issues and there are no refs to enable you to check anything. He covers asteroids, WMD's, greenhouse effect, ice ages, volcanos, plagues, insects, bioengineering, cyberterror and, presciently, tsunamis. He does not mention overpopulation, supernovas or the Doomsday Hypothesis(the seemingly absurd but quite serious idea that on general gounds alone it is likely we have lived half our total span as a species). His chapter on volcanos does not mention that Yellowstone Park in the USA is the worlds biggest caldera. To his credit he does take the greenhouse effect seriously and he was writing at least 3 years ago. If only the average citizen and the government had the same good sense.

Exploitation at it's worst.......2003-03-01

This book completely exploits people's fears to make a dollar. The problem with the book isn't whether or not the scenarios are valid or not (although there is a valid debate to be had there). It's that the scenarios aren't put in perspective. As far as I am concerned, this problem pretty much negates the validity of the who thing.

It's the equivalent of telling an agoraphobe about all of the ways they could be mugged while going to the grocery store. Could it happen? Yes. Is it likely? No. Are you doing them a favor? Certainly not. Mr. Moran isn't doing the public any favors either.

Excellent, Well-Researched, Real Page Turner.......2003-02-07

This is the first real pager-turner ever written in the genre of non-fiction, science-based books. Mr. Moran lays out ten exciting scenarios that could one day lead to the extinction of humankind: Weapons of Mass Destruction, Asteroid Impacts with Earth, Massive Volcanic Eruptions, The Greenhouse Effect, The Coming Ice Age, Mega-Tsunamis, Plagues, Cyberterrorism, Insect Invasions, and Bioengineering Blunders.

One of Mr. Moran's predictions has already been proven possible; in the "Weapons of Mass Destruction" chapter, he discusses the possibility that other countries may, in the very near future, use chemical, biological and/or other WMD against the United States. With a potential war on the horizon, this possibility has become a glaring threat we may have to face in months, or even weeks.

I found DOOMSDAY to be extremely well researched. Mr. Moran knows his stuff, and he explained terms and concepts a hundred times better than even my favorite college professors. I recommend DOOMSDAY to all interested in learning more about the dangers we may face both today, and in the future. Just because there is a very slim chance that an event should take place, does not mean it still does not pose a violent, and horrifying threat to all of humankind.

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The end of the world as we know it: any dragons to slay? Guadalupe offers help in our doomsday scenarios.(the examined life) : An article from: U.S. Catholic
Carmen Aguinaco
Manufacturer: Claretian Publications
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

General | Philosophy | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books
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ASIN: B0009GPEJM
Release Date: 2005-08-01

Book Description

This digital document is an article from U.S. Catholic, published by Claretian Publications on December 1, 2004. The length of the article is 815 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Citation Details
Title: The end of the world as we know it: any dragons to slay? Guadalupe offers help in our doomsday scenarios.(the examined life)
Author: Carmen Aguinaco
Publication: U.S. Catholic (Magazine/Journal)
Date: December 1, 2004
Publisher: Claretian Publications
Volume: 69 Issue: 12 Page: 50(1)

Distributed by Thomson Gale

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Doomsday: End-Of-The-World Scenarios
Richard Moran
Manufacturer: Alpha
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000OA52CC

Book Description

While researching Russia's historical efforts to protect nature, Douglas Weiner unearthed unexpected findings: a trail of documents that raised fundamental questions about the Soviet political system. These surprising documents attested to the unlikely survival of a critical-minded, scientist-led movement through the Stalin years and beyond. It appeared that, within scientific societies, alternative visions of land use, resrouce exploitation, habitat protection, and development were sustained and even publicly advocated. In sharp contrast to known Soviet practices, these scientific societies prided themselves on their traditions of free elections, foreign contacts, and a pre-revolutionary heritage.
Weiner portrays nature protection activists not as do-or-die resisters to the system, nor as inoffensive do-gooders. Rather, they took advantage of an unpoliced realm of speech and activity and of the patronage by middle-level Soviet officials to struggle for a softer path to development. In the process, they defended independent social and professional identities in the face of a system that sought to impose official models of behavior, ethics, and identity for all. Written in a lively style, this absorbing story tells for the first time how organized participation in nature protection provided an arena for affirming and perpetuating self-generated social identities in the USSR and preserving a counterculture whose legacy survives today.

Customer Reviews:

Force of Nature: Environment as a Movement in Soviet Russia.......1999-07-10

A very needed contribution about a very important but little known part of modern Russia. From the druzhina movement to defeat of the "Project of the Century" that helped topple soviet dominance, the Russian love of the environment has served as a source of strength and political expression. A good antidote to the lingering cold war condescion still kicking that there is nothing of value in Russian society. Dense reading, however, but good. An important historical source.

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