Improving Tourism and Hospitality Services: Analysis Design Management

Book Description

In the coming half-century, the proportion of elderly in the populations of developed nations will nearly double, challenging the sustainability of old-age pensions and health care. This book examines the extent of that challenge and offers probabilistic forecasts for the Group of Seven industrial nations.

Customer Reviews:

Excellent study on the subject.......2003-09-27

Robert England has written several books on the impact of global aging. This is an excellent study on this huge macroeconomic factor that is not resolved by any of the G-7 countries.

Robert England makes a convincing case that all governments from the G-7 group have greatly understated the fiscal pressures that the demographics of aging will impose on their respective government finances over the next 50 years. He contrasts the official figures on this subject with output from the demographic model developed by the Mountain View Research (MVR). In each cases, official estimates way understate demographic pressures of a growing aging population and the associated fiscal costs of supporting government programs earmarked for the elderly.

While governments predict that by 2050, life expectancy at birth will be 80.5 years in the U.S. and 83.0 years in Japan. The private sector MVR forecasts that the median outcome will be 83.2 years in the U.S. and 91.9 years in Japan. Thus, government authorities may have understated life expectancies by 2050 by 2.7 years in the U.S. and by 8.7 years in Japan. These years represent understated longevity gains of 17.9% in years over 65 for the U.S., and an amazing 50% for Japan. This is a serious matter because the addition of 50% more years after age 65 is roughly equivalent to another 50% increase in the cost of providing pensions, medical, and nursing care to elderly people than previously thought.

In my current job, I develop models catered to the financial service industry that are similar to the demographic MVR model. Using a regression analysis model, I was able to exactly replicate MVR median U.S. life expectancy by 2010, 2030, and 2050. My own judgment is that the MVR median figures are slightly overstated. This is because the underlying MVR assumption is that the increase in U.S. life expectancy experienced over the past 20 years, will continue forward at the same pace unabated over the next 50 years. I don't think this is realistic for a median outcome. But, using my same model, and progressively slowing the increase in life expectancy from one decade to the next, I come to the conclusion that the MVR estimates seem much closer to what appears realistic than official figures. In other words, even slowing down dramatically future increase in life expectancy, I come up with figures that are much higher than the official ones, and that are closer to the MVR ones. This smacks of governments manipulating their own analysis to understate the fiscal costs of global aging.

The G-7 countries have greatly underestimated the impact of all other demographic assumptions. Relative to the private sector MVR figures, they underestimated the rise in old age dependency ratios. Officials have done this by overstating fertility rates, inmigration rates, labor force participation. As a result, they have overstated the population of the labor force supporting the elderly population (that they have understated as mentioned in the prior paragraph). Thus, while officials predict that by 2050 the old-age dependency ratio will rise to 0.371 in the U.S., MVR median outcome is 0.393 (this means there will be 39 retirees supported by 100 workers; or there will be only 2.5 workers supporting each retiree). In Japan, the difference is more dramatic. Officials forecast the old-age dependency ratio will reach 0.592 while MVR median outcome is 0.734 (only 1.36 active worker supporting each retiree). These differences have drastic impact on the respective government debt levels these countries will have to issue to support government programs aimed at the elderly.

Robert England mentions that there is no one solution that will allow governments finances to withstand this demographic tidal wave. What is needed is an all out effort on all fronts including: a) a reduction in elderly benefits (especially in Europe where they are way too high to be sustainable); b) a progressive rise in the retirement age which reflects rising life expectancies; and c) government policies to support rising fertility rate and increase inmigration (this is a huge issue in Japan).

Robert England details the experience of Germany and Italy at attempting fiscal reforms (reducing pensions, increasing retirement ages) to address these upcoming fiscal issues associated with the rapid aging of their respective population. Apparently, implementing reforms that will adequately manage these future fiscal costs represent a formidable political challenge. After all, do you know who is one of the most powerful lobbying group in America? The answer is AARP. (American Association of Retired Persons).

Average customer rating:
The fiscal challenge of an aging industrial world: A white paper on demographics and medical technology
Robert Stowe England
Manufacturer: Center for Strategic and International Studies
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

Retirement Planning | Personal Finance | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
General | Aging | Personal Health | Health, Mind & Body | Subjects | Books
Retirement Planning | Aging Parents | Parenting & Families | Subjects | Books
ASIN: B0006RNMTS

Average customer rating:
The ethics of necropolis;: An essay on the military-industrial complex and the quest for a just peace
Max L Stackhouse
Manufacturer: Beacon Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Sociobiology | Anthropology | Social Sciences | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books
History | Sociology | Social Sciences | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 0807011444

Average customer rating:
The quest for industrial peace (Meyer Kestnbaum lectures)
David L Cole
Manufacturer: McGraw-Hill
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

Labor & Industrial Relations | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
ASIN: B0006AYQZE

Book Description

Cole helps the reader to understand and to appreciate better the roles that labor leaders, management negotiators, and government officials play in collective bargaining.

Average customer rating:

The Quest for Industrial Peace
David Lawrence Cole
Manufacturer: A Greenwood Press Reprint
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000OTP016

Average customer rating:

The quest of industrial peace,
W. M Clow
Manufacturer: Hodder and Stoughton
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

Corporate Finance | Finance | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

Management | Management & Leadership | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

Average customer rating:
Michael's Cast of Characters: A Not-So-Serious Guide to the Michael Teachings
Emily Baumbach
Manufacturer: Progress Pr
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

General | Humor | Entertainment | Subjects | Books
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The Michael Handbook: A Channeled System for Self Understanding

ASIN: 0942663071

Product Description

Authentic Guitar-Tab. Titles are: Acadian Driftwood, American Roulette, Hell's Half Acre, King's Harvest (Has Surely Come), It Makes No Difference, Life Is A Carnival and more!

Customer Reviews:

the Band's music for guitat players.......2007-01-12

I found the book to be very useful for learning the songs.

Book Description

In Fans: The Mirror of Consumption Cornel Sandvoss explores the social, cultural, and psychological premises and consequences of fan consumption. The scope of the book is impressive - he looks not just at the nature and development of whole fan cultures, but also focuses on the experience and identity of the individual fan. In addition, the book proposes a new perspective on fans and popular culture, arguing that the modern self is reflected and constituted through media consumption.In developing his account, Sandvoss draws on theoretical ideas in an original yet accessible way, and uses a wide range of examples, from Star Trek to Madonna to football, to illustrate his argument. This makes 'Fans: the mirror of consumption' an ideal text for upper-level undergraduate and postgraduate students studying fans, audiences and consumption in all areas of contemporary culture.It is the book's original contribution, combined with its student-friendly approach, that will make 'Fans: The Mirror of Consumption' a 'must read' text for students and scholars alike.

Customer Reviews:

fun refresher course in all things "Friends".......2000-06-11

I've been a diehard fan of "Friends" since its debut. But I didn't read this book until recently. And it was cool to remember all the things from the early years. Who knew then that the show would be around for all these year. I hope she writes another one. Maybe one for each season. That'd make this "friend" pleased.

A fun, fun book that captures the spirit of "Friends.".......1999-11-18

Wow, what can I say? I expected to get some stupid book that didn't "get" it. But the author kept the spirit going by writing in a style not unlike the characters. I really enjoyed it and will recommend it to MY friends.

Okay but could have been better!.......1999-11-06

As a huge "Friends" fan,I own both books and all possible memorabilia related to the show.I prefer the official guide rather than this unofficial guide because this book contains info that most "Friends" fans like myself already know.But this book should be of interest to those who do not know much about the show and those who have only begun liking the show.

I think that The Unofficial Friends book is very good........1999-08-26

What can I say is a very good book and I have been a fan of Friends almost a year now and is the best show in the world.

It's the best thing since Noam Chomsky!.......1998-09-23

The Best of Friends is an exciting and inspired collection of all your favorite Friends episodes and is filled with fun trivia facts and kewel pictures. Steve Poltz recommended the book to me as he is a fan of both the show and the author!!

It's a great read!

Average customer rating:
Best of Friends: The Unofficial Friends Companion
Jae-Ha Kim
Manufacturer: Perennial
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000OEYQX4

Product Description

WIN XP PRO RESOURCE KIT SECOND EDITION

Customer Reviews:

microsoft windows xp professional resource kit second edition.......2006-02-04

merchant did all they promised, I just ordered wrong book

Almost Perfect!!!.......2005-09-28

I passed exam 70-270 using only this book. I suggest finding other material to study to supplement this book. There were some things in my exam that was not covered very well in this book. What really sticks out are secure VPN protocols like IPSec and CHAP. Other than that, this book is almost perfect. I highly recommend.

Overall excellent.......2005-03-14

I was very glad to have waited for the 2nd edition of this resource kit. $59.99 for 1600 pages is makes this a good value. As others have said, this "kit" covers it all from desktop configuration to deployment. The step by step procedures are excellent and written very much like my favorite manuals the Admin Pocket Consultants. I would also recommend Windows XP Professional Administrator's Pocket Consultant 2nd Edition. At $29.99 and 550 pages its also a good value.

Redeemed.......2004-05-26

I was duped into buying the first edition - and can therefore fully understand anyone's "once bitten, twice shy" feelings towards this RSK. Put your fears aside, this edition delivers exactly what you would expect. Practically re-written from the ground up, and packed with additional utilities, this edition is well worth the purchase.

One of the three books I used to study for my MCDST.......2004-03-21

I found this book incredibly useful. It was the right balance of depth and breadth. This book is particularly useful for two groups of people:

1) If you're part of a Windows XP rollout team for your company, your team needs this book.
2) If you're going to be supporting users who are using Windows XP, this book is critical to your success.

Detailed, thorough, and well organized. Definitely choose this one over the older version, "Windows XP Documentation," also from Microsoft.

Book Description

D. D. Kosambi was a pioneer in Indian studies, introducing new perspectives and interdisciplinary methods. This book collects many of his most important writings, on a wide range of topics, from philology and text editing to religion, historical reconstruction, archaeology, and anthropology.
This anthology is the first to give readers easy access to this versatile and influential body of work.

Combined Methods in Indology and Other Essays

Average customer rating:

Combined Methods in Indology and Other Essays
D. D. Kosambi
Manufacturer: Oxford University Press, USA
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000OKZJKM

Average customer rating:

Inept Attempt at History

An Anatomy of Terror: A History of Terrorism
Andrew Sinclair
Manufacturer: Pan Macmillan
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

General | World | History | Subjects | Books
Relations | International | Politics | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books
Terrorism | Current Events | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books
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Confronting Fear: A History of Terrorism

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Blasphemy: Art That Offends

Inside Terrorism

ASIN: 1403966850
Release Date: 2004-11-25

Book Description

From antiquity to the present day, in the east and the west, the methods and motives for terror are disturbingly similar. In An Anatomy of Terror, Andrew Sinclair takes a detailed trip through the dark side of humanity, from Muslim assassins and the Crusades to Timothy McVeigh and Osama bin Laden. He encounters many links between seemingly disparate groups and illumiantes the strategies that terrorists employ to recruit soldiers. This book examines all facets of terror with a sweeping exploration of history, from the early role of terror as a tribal force to its incorporation into religious terrorism and politically-fueled violence.

Customer Reviews:

Inept Attempt at History.......2006-02-21

The author is neither a historian nor a terrorism expert and it shows. Myth and fact are presented equally; a result of the author's insufficient knowledge of the topic to determine which is which. Appears to be an attempt to capitalize on the interest in terrorism occuring since 9-11. I gave it a 1 becuase 0 was not available.

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