Famous First Bubbles: The Fundamentals of Early Manias

Book Description

The jargon of economics and finance contains numerous colorful terms for market-asset prices at odds with any reasonable economic explanation. Examples include "bubble," "tulipmania," "chain letter," "Ponzi scheme," "panic," "crash," "herding," and "irrational exuberance." Although such a term suggests that an event is inexplicably crowd-driven, what it really means, claims Peter Garber, is that we have grasped a near-empty explanation rather than expend the effort to understand the event.

In this book Garber offers market-fundamental explanations for the three most famous bubbles: the Dutch Tulipmania (1634-1637), the Mississippi Bubble (1719-1720), and the closely connected South Sea Bubble (1720). He focuses most closely on the Tulipmania because it is the event that most modern observers view as clearly crazy. Comparing the pattern of price declines for initially rare eighteenth-century bulbs to that of seventeenth-century bulbs, he concludes that the extremely high prices for rare bulbs and their rapid decline reflects normal pricing behavior. In the cases of the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles, he describes the asset markets and financial manipulations involved in these episodes and casts them as market fundamentals.

Customer Reviews:

A Good Read!.......2004-06-10

During the collapse of the so-called Internet bubble, the legendary Dutch fiscal intoxication with tulips, called tulipmania, was widely cited as a lesson from history. The financial press hyped stories of deluded Dutch farmers who mortgaged all their worldly possessions to purchase a single prize tulip bulb, only to meet financial ruin when the bubble inevitably burst. Economist Peter M. Garber dug into history, and found that most of the common wisdom about the tulipmania was false. So, if you ever wondered how Dutch investors could have been so foolish, there is a simple answer: they weren't. Famous First Bubbles clearly evolved from a series of academic papers but, nonetheless, the book is entertaining. The primary focus on the tulip bubble makes the sections on the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles seem like afterthoughts. We recommend this to iconoclasts who enjoy debunking historical legends and to bubble watchers everywhere.

Excellent debunking of the myth about tulipmania.......2003-09-05

The author does an excellent job debunking the myth about the Dutch tulipmania from 1634 to 1637. He conducted detailed economics and historical research, and uncovered that just about everything about tulipmania as described in Charles Mackay book "Extraordinary popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" is either inaccurate, or exaggerated. The Dutch never mortgaged their entire properties for a single bulb. Also, Holland did not suffer a depression after the tulip market crashed. According to the author, very little net wealth was actually wiped out. Instead, the price of rare tulips was driven by rational economic considerations reflecting the short supply and the rising demand for this rare tulip bulb type. The price of these tulip bulbs at anyone time reflected expected investment returns from investors. Other economists have also documented that the price of tulip bulbs did go back up to similar level several centuries later associated with favorable economics change in this market.

The author goes on to further explain the rational economics fundamentals behind the Mississippi Bubble of 1719-1720 resulting from an attempt to swap French government debt for equity in a private company, financed by printing paper money. He similarly explains out in similar economics terms the South Sea Bubble of 1720 which was the equivalent of a leveraged buyout of the national debt of Great Britain. Both investment schemes ultimately collapsed, but their respective economics and strong government support at the onset gave these investment propositions very strong fundamentals. These investments are not so different than investments today in GSEs like Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, and Sallie Mae. Because of accounting irregularities, the stocks in these GSEs have recently taken a beating. But, there is no ground for talking about a GSE stock bubble.

The author has strong credentials to support his iconoclastic thesis that is not that well known by the economics establishment. He is a global strategist at Global Markets Research at Deutsche Bank and Professor of Economics at Brown University.

The Internet bubble has often been compared to the three investment bubbles mentioned above. Sadly enough, internet stock investors were by far the most foolish among investors of these four different investment bubbles. This is because at the onset the fundamentals behind internet stocks were far weaker and speculative than the ones associated with the investments associated with any of the three other bubbles.

A Good Read!.......2003-05-06

During the collapse of the so-called Internet bubble, the legendary Dutch fiscal intoxication with tulips, called tulipmania, was widely cited as a lesson from history. The financial press hyped stories of deluded Dutch farmers who mortgaged all their worldly possessions to purchase a single prize tulip bulb, only to meet financial ruin when the bubble inevitably burst. Economist Peter M. Garber dug into history, and found that most of the common wisdom about the tulipmania was false. So, if you ever wondered how Dutch investors could have been so foolish, there is a simple answer: they weren't. Famous First Bubbles clearly evolved from a series of academic papers but, nonetheless, the book is entertaining. The primary focus on the tulip bubble makes the sections on the Mississippi and South Sea Bubbles seem like afterthoughts. We from getAbstract recommend this to iconoclasts who enjoy debunking historical legends and to bubble watchers everywhere.

Good, but not very academic.......2003-02-03

Episodes as the Tulip Mania, The South See Bubble, the Crash of 1929 are going to leave a permanent trace in financial science. So they deserve close investigation. The Author has achieved to make really a very interesting and vivid one. His ideas are very controversial, but exactly they make the book amusing. However, I haven't seen anywhere in the book a formula, integral, etc. Perhaps the purpose was to give more informal treatment of the bubbles phenomena, but it will be very interesting a formal one to be made in future by fitting concrete rational expectations models in the historical data.
Vilimir Yordanov, Bulgaria

Good Topic, Poorly Written.......2000-09-23

I picked up this book with high expectations as the topic is very timely, the author has a good reputaiton, and given the size of the volume thought it would efficientyl get to the point.

While the arguements made are important they are lost in a difficult ot read academic writing style. Hence while I did get the point, I didn't enjoy the process. The three events discussed, "Tulipmania", the "Missiissippi" and "South Sea Companies" are well know within financial circles. Each carries a lore and mythology which is what perpetuates them today. Humanizing the narrative would have been a more effective way to make the points that each had logical explnations other than manias that distorted asset prices.

Finally, particularly as the author is works in contemporary finance, the book really should have a chapter on the lessons applied to today.

Average customer rating:
Famous First Bubbles: The Fundamentals of Early Manias
Peter M. Garber
Manufacturer: The MIT Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000OQPZIC

Average customer rating:
Famous First Bubbles: The Fundamentals of Early Manias
Peter M. Garber
Manufacturer: The MIT Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000OR3ZG0

Book Description

In a nutshell, organization behavior may be defined as the study of the evolutionary theory, structure, processes and behavioral paradigms. Organization behavior is as old as the evolution of ancient social organizations. Throughout history, the evolutionary development and adaptation of the organization has been influenced by the increasingly ceaseless growth of knowledge in technology, leadership, theory, communication, strategy, motivation, cultural diversity, decision making and control. "Organizational Behavior" is Meshack Sagini's account concerning what, how, and why organizations are organized in a classical manner which does not enable them to function effectively. In order to address the challenges of the new millennium, Sagini provides an interdisciplinary, comparative, and historical account for their postmodern restructuring and reengineering.

Book Description

Updated guide provides the latest findings about the biology and ecology of the Gulf of Mexico.

Customer Reviews:

Way Too Technical for the Average Beach Bum.......2007-07-20

I was looking for a book for our kids and us to use to identify marine life we found and to learn a little about it. This book reads more like a graduate school textbook. Also, a few color pictures would have been nice; this book has only ink drawings whick are dull and not very helpful in distinguishing different creatures with subtle variations. There is nothing fun about this book. A friend who is a marine biologist looked at it and agreed with my assessment.

Beachcomber's Guide to Florida Marine Life (Beachcomber's Guide)

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Beachcomber's Guide to Florida Marine Life (Beachcomber's Guide)
William S. Alevizon
Manufacturer: Gulf Publishing
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

General | Nature & Ecology | Science | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: 088415128X

Book Description

This delightful guide describes the various coastal habitats, the most common, conspicuous plants and animals that inhabit them, and the dynamic forces that affect them.

Beachcomber's Guide to Gulf Coast Marine Life: Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, & Texas

Average customer rating:

Hard to find a Copy

Beachcomber's Guide to Gulf Coast Marine Life: Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, & Texas
Nick Fotheringham , and Susan L. Brunenmeister
Manufacturer: Gulf Publishing Co.
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

General | Nature & Ecology | Science | Subjects | Books

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Customer Reviews:

Hard to find a Copy.......2002-02-09

I have mixed emotions about this book, it is very informative on many levels but falls short on many more. I was thinking that it would be about things frequently seen from the beach but it includes a lot of info the layman will probably never need. This includes info (I personally appreciated) about planktonic animals, mieofauna and epifauna, in general a bunch of small animals most people will never notice. Not to say that they shouldn't have been included! They are very important to understanding the ecology of the areas discussed. See what I mean about mixed emotions? I like the way that the book grouped things by community; oyster reef, seagrass bed, mud bottom, etc. A hearty appendix that linked things by taxonomic group would have been nice though. Illustrations where copious but a tad bit simple. In the price range the line drawings could have been better, or supplemented by black and white illustrations. Also curious was the listing of only invertebrates until the end, then the authors jumped over everything and threw in a chapter on sea turtles??? What about the rest of the marine vertebrates? Why include the turtles without the fish and marine mammals? Kind of lopsided.

If you see this book lying around it is certainly worth having. I'm still using it to flip back and explore certain areas. I wouldn't get to hung up on finding a copy, unless you're really trying to own everything on gulf coast marine life.

Book Description

Zooplankton is a major work of reference for researchers in plankton biology, physiology and behavior, which combines behavioral and psychological approaches to the study of plankton on present and interdisciplinary investigation of sensory processes in pelagic environments. The breadth of perspective thus achieved provides valuable insights into the larger scale ecological processes of biological productivity, community structure and population dynamics. Technological advances in almost all aspects of biological research have opened up opportunities for a re-examination of the sensory ecology of planktonic organisms. In this wide-ranging collection, leading researchers in planktonic behavior and physiology address the rapidly developing interface between these two major areas. The studies presented range from the laboratory to the field and from the cell to the whole organism, but share the common goal of understanding the special sensory world of organisms that live in pelagic environments and how their behavior and physiology relate to it.

Zooplankton: Sensory Ecology and Physiology

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Zooplankton: Sensory Ecology and Physiology
P Lenz
Manufacturer: NY
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
ASIN: B000MUF7VK

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this is good for understanding overall extreme sports.

Extreme Sports: In Search of the Ultimate Thrill
Joe Tomlinson
Manufacturer: Firefly Books Ltd
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

Look Inside Sports Books | Trip | Specialty Stores | Books
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ASIN: 155297992X

Book Description

Pushing the limits.

Extreme sports vigorously test the limits of an individual's strength, agility, and courage. One's adversary in these sports is not another athlete but the forces of nature, particularly gravity.

Extreme Sports celebrates the wild world of high adrenaline sports with concise profiles of forty-one sports. The sports range from bungee jumping to whitewater rafting. Each sport is described with lively text and illustrated with dynamic action photography.

The sports featured in Extreme Sports are organized alphabetically in three major sections:

Nine Air Sports: BASE jumping, ballooning, hang gliding, sky diving, sky surfing, etc.
Seventeen Land Sports: Ice climbing, ice yachting, mountain boarding, skateboarding, street luge, etc.
Fifteen Water Sports: Jetskiing, power boating, snorkeling, wakeboarding, windsurfing, etc.

Extreme Sports also features less known sports, such as freediving: a sport that requires participants to swim into the deepest reaches of the ocean carrying only the air they hold in their lungs. Freedivers have pushed the limits of unassisted breathing dives to go below 400 feet. The book includes an extensive list of books, magazines, associations and clubs that would-be extreme athletes can contact to obtain more information for each sport.

Although participating in extreme sports is clearly not for every sports enthusiast, Extreme Sports is.

Customer Reviews:

this is good for understanding overall extreme sports........2005-09-05

very helpful&informative to me. To understand the overall extreme sports,this is recommendable. good photos, early history and pioneer and good events for each sports,,,etc

Extreme Sports: In Search of the Ultimate Thrill

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Extreme Sports: In Search of the Ultimate Thrill
Joe Tomlinson
Manufacturer: Smithmark Pub
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
ASIN: B000JF9WLY

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Extreme Sports: In Search of the Ultimate Thrill
Joe Tomlinson
Manufacturer: Tandem Library
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Library Binding

General | Sports | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 1417653809

Average customer rating:

Tells it like it is

In search of perfection?

Oh, help me to find the way.

Dennis Woods, writer-producer, reviews "A writer's Roadmap

A MUST HAVE

A Writer's Roadmap
Wendell Wellman
Manufacturer: 1st Books Library
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

Study & Teaching | Words & Language | Reference | Subjects | Books
General | Genre Fiction | Writing | Reference | Subjects | Books
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Save The Cat! The Last Book on Screenwriting You'll Ever Need

Inner Drives: How to Write and Create Characters Using the Eight Classic Centers of Motivation

Writing for Emotional Impact

Screenwriting: The Sequence Approach

Writing a Great Movie: Four Advanced Tools for the Dramatist

ASIN: 1403387524

Book Description

Hollywood screenwriters have a unique style of telling stories. The stories are big, muscular, fast paced, with in-your-face characters, and big emotions...

A WRITERS ROADMAP is a simple, but detailed instruction guide for the novice to learn to write a Hollywood style screenplay. Wendell Wellman has a made a career of writing big action movies. Firefox starring Clint Eastwood was his first big credit. Mr. Wellman ended up collaborating with Clint Eastwood three times, including acting in a feature role in Sudden Impact.

Over the years Mr. Wellman began to develop his own system for building a screenplay from the first section to the last. In talking about writing over the years, Mr. Wellman discovered that secretaries, lawyers, grade school teachers, costumers, and most other people had a desire to write. They consequently would take many classes, read books and still not understand how to build the story. Mr. Wellman began breaking down a story into small sections, citing movie after movie that would be using similar sections.

This is a technique that began to excite the non-writers, the secretaries, and the school teachers, as well as the pros. They began to look at movies differently, spotting the sections over and over, beginning to devise for themselves their own ideas on how to attack the sections. Invariably, they began to write. Mr. Wellman never abandons his step-by-step technique. He uses it to constantly monitor his own work. A WRITERS ROADMAP is deliberately short, and deliberately easy to read.

Mr. Wellman writes in a simple, brutally honest humorous style. The book is filled with anecdotes about Hollywood, since Mr. Wellman is a working actor as well. The book is meant to be read in two to three hours. It is strictly a how-to book for all writers but most specifically for screenwriters, and Mr. Wellman then hopes that the reader will go out and write. And perhaps what they write will be one of the next big feature action movies to be acquired and produced….

Customer Reviews:

Tells it like it is.......2007-06-02

This is the most candid book on screenwriting I know. It's written from the gut by someone who's been through the mill - the highs and lows - and come out with a lot of brass tacks wisdom. The style is clear, direct, to the point with a lot of equally unfussy emotional honesty.

I used to see Wellman when he was part of a theatre company in LA about 10 years (he was a pretty powerful actor, I thought, with a really funky CV - from The Klansman to Sommersby!). This book packs a similar punch.

In search of perfection?.......2003-05-23

Gearing up to enter pre-production on my next feature, I was presented with "A Writer's Roadmap" by Wendell Wellman. It could not have been a more timely gift. Reading this book, I immediately became aware of many shortcomings of my script. And was able to repair them before wasting precious production resources. The information in this book is a must for anyone who is serious about raising his or her writing to the level of perfection. My advice for determined filmakers, get this book!

Oh, help me to find the way........2003-05-19

I have long harbored a desire to try my hand a screenwriting. As if novel writing were not challenging enough for me. An aquaintance recommended I read Wendell Wellmanýs ýA Writerýs Roadmapý. Of course! Any journey into an unknown territory certainly requires the use of a good roadmap.

Not long into the second chapter did I realize that many of the techniques that I was learning from Mr. Wellman would apply to my fiction writing as well. A double bonus, if you will. How could I go wrong? I couldnýt.

Mr. Wellman's journey begins with ýScreenwriting from the Trenches.ý Sounded kind of like boot camp to this military vet. Here Wendell warns us, when writing, that the middle section will kill us. I know this to be true in my daily dietary battle with my own waistline. So this applies to writing as well?

The journey continues. From ýWho is your Heroý to ýWhoýs Your Enemy.ý Regarding heroes, very important people they are, Mr. Wellman tells us that Hollywood chooses to discuss screenplays in terms of three acts. Act one: hero makes bad decision. Act two: hero makes bad decision (at this point, two wrongs do not make a right), Act three: hero make a good decision. And that is the simple formula.

Thanks Wendell, for this informative and well written roadmap. Could this be an introduction to writing? How about another guide? Iýd buy a copy. Norm Harris-author, Fruit of a Poisonous Tree.

Dennis Woods, writer-producer, reviews "A writer's Roadmap.......2003-03-31

DennisWoods-Doderer - writer-producer

Wendell Wellman's "A Writers' Roadmap" has de-mystified the secrets that millionaire scribes won't share with us. Fear and political considerations steer the writer away from the character's truth. The book navigates fthrough film and literature classics in way that is therapeutic, even for the non-writer. If Michael Moore trekked this mythic path, he'd have a breakdown, and might even resurrect as a writer.

A MUST HAVE.......2003-03-29

This is a MUST HAVE in every writer's tool box if they are serious about improving/perfecting their writing skills. As well as for people who enjoy watching good TV, feature films, reading good books or playing the latest video games. In easy reading steps Wellman lays out the secrets behind constructing a good solid story that helps not only in making any writer's job easier, but will greatly aid them in constructing interesting and believable characters. For TV, film, book and/or gaming fans this book will certainly deepen your enjoyment levels by making it possible for you to more fully appreciate the skills that go into writing a good solid story that pulls you into the story world, introduces you to interesting, exciting and believable characters, and takes you on a priceless adventure. For today's screenwriter this is an excellent companion book to add to McKee and Fields on your bookshelf.

YOUR Roadmap To A Book: A Pocket Guide For The Aspiring Writer

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YOUR Roadmap To A Book: A Pocket Guide For The Aspiring Writer
Paula Edwards and Curtis Alcutt
Manufacturer: WriteWay2Freedom
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

General | Reference | Subjects | Books
ASIN: 0975563017
Release Date: 2007-03-01

Product Description

WriteWay2Freedom has held workshops for writers all over the US, telling all they know about writing/publishing/having a book published. Some aspiring writers have been fortunate enough to attend; some not so fortunate. Now, whether you're able to attend or not, is no longer up for discussion. Aspiring Writer, the wait is OVER! WriteWay2Freedom Proudly Presents... YOUR Roadmap To A Book: A Pocket Guide For The Aspiring Writer! Filled to the brim with topics covering everything from A to Z, this 60 page book is sure to jump-start anyone's writing career! Get your copy today!! Visit us online at www.writeway2freedom.com for an autographed copy.

Book Description

Exceptionally useful workbook includes 75 widely used alphabets shown in complete fonts with lower cases. Letters printed jumbo size to reveal every nuance of design. Written descriptions accompany each font, giving detailed analysis of characteristics. Also 16 favorite modern and traditional faces and 940 body and display type specimens arranged alphabetically.

Customer Reviews:

A Nice Addition to Your Library.......2004-09-27

This book is a reprint of "Art Directors' Workbook of Type Faces" so don't do as I did and buy both! The book is well-done and presents many popular foundry type (metal) type faces. I find it valuable when comparing today's digital type fonts with the original. It displays the complete alphabet in a large size for easy comparison and recognition and includes a brief history of the type face. I feel that the book supplements other books such as "Encyclopedia of Type Faces" (Jaspert, Berry, and Johnson).

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