Elements of Forecasting (with InfoTrac 1-Semester, Economic Applications Online Product, Data Sets Printed Access Card)

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ELEMENTARY FORECASTING focuses on the core techniques of widest applicability. The author illustrates all methods with detailed real-world applications, many of them international in flavor, designed to mimic typical forecasting situations.

Customer Reviews:

Not Bad.......2007-01-04

The book starts with talking about forecasting deterministic trends, then seasonalities, later chapters 6,7,8 talk about forecasting cycles. Finally in the end chapters the author puts it all together and talks about multivariable forecasting models. The book is on an introductory level, so if you're looking for indepth discussion of these topics this is not for you. Anoter drawback is that this book does not integrate into its discussion of the topics any examples of code that would show how to forecast with any popular software package (Eviews or SAS).

Third edition is no better.......2004-01-15

I posted the unfavorable review of the second edition. I have recently had an opportunity to see the third edition, and find the same errors are still present.

an embarrassingly slapdash and sloppy book.......2002-09-28

There were a considerable number of errors in the first edition that I pointed out to the author shortly after its publication. The second edition seems to have corrected few if any of them. Let me cite two egregious examples.

In the chapter on ARMA models, the example analyzed is Canadian Employment data. One of the models that is fit is an MA(4) -- see pages 164-6. When I tried to reproduce these results using software other than EVIEWS, using the data disk in the 1st edition, I couldn't. I contacted EVIEWS and they discovered a programming error in the estimation routine. They released a patch to fix EVIEWS. However, the author never re-estimated his model, and the estimates in the second edition are the same as in the first. However, my copy of the 2nd edition has no data disk! Was that thought to be an adequate solution?!

Chapter 9 ("Putting it all together") is a capstone chapter that analyzes liquor sales data using the techniques introduced in earlier chapters. After several pages (pp. 207-19) a model is selected. On pages 220-2, the residuals are examined using the Box-Ljung statistic, and deemed acceptable. However, as a careful examination of table 9.6 makes clear, the p-values for the Box-Ljung statistic were computed as if the input data were a raw series. The model generating the residuals (p. 219) had 3 autoregressive terms! This changes the d.f. in the chi-square distribution of the statistic. If you make the appropriate correction using the data in table 9.6, and compute the p-values correctly, you will see that the model residuals apparently ARE NOT white noise. One reason is a calendar effect in liquor sales: months that contain more than a usual number of Fridays and Saturdays result in more liquor sales; ones with more Sundays result in lower liquor sales. However, the author doesn't discover this, but accepts his inappropriate model on the basis of faulty distribution theory.

Good, but poor examples.......1999-11-27

If the purpose of using this book is to get a brief idea of what certain concepts are then it is a good book. Unfortunately, many people using this book are going to be those who do not have much background with the concepts inside and they will be looking for clearer explanations of what the author is talking about. I think that is the book's weakness: the fact that many times I didn't feel that his definitions and explanations were complete enough.

Excellent introductory guide to forecasting !!!.......1999-01-26

The use of practical examples (using the Eviews software) and the availability of a data disk makes this a very relevant guide for practitioners. There is a good section on graphical analysis and modelling of cycles using AR and MA processes. The mathematics is kept simple and clear, intuitive explanations are given throughout. The treatment of unit roots, cointegration and other advanced materials is quite sketchy but I guess that is to be expected in an introductory text. With the level of clarity evident throughout this book, I certainty hope Diebold follows up with another book on more advanced forecasting techniques.

The Elements of Statistics with Applications to Economics and the Social Sciences

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Researcher and Lecturer in Financial Ecometrics
Associate Professor of Economics, East Carolina University
The Elements of Statistics - A Review

The Elements of Statistics with Applications to Economics and the Social Sciences
James B. Ramsey
Manufacturer: South-Western College Pub
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Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0534371116

Book Description

Designed for readers who want to stress the understanding of basic concepts and the development of "statistical intuition," this book demonstrates that statistical reasoning is everywhere and that statistical concepts are as important to readers' personal lives as they are to their future professional careers. Ramsey aims to develop statistically literacy - from the ability to read and think critically about statistics published in popular media to the ability to analyze and act upon statistics gathered in the business world. The underlying philosophy of this book is that given a reasonable level of depth in the analysis, the reader can later acquire a much more extensive, and even more intensive, exposure to statistics on their own or in the context of the work environment. Some use of calculus is included. Use of the computer is integrated throughout.

Customer Reviews:

Researcher and Lecturer in Financial Ecometrics.......2002-07-14

James Ramsey has written the ideal introductory statistics text for those with inquisitive minds. Ramsey's The Elements of Statistics with Applications to Economics and the Social Sciences presents an insightful, but accessible approach to the processes of statistical reasoning and problem solving. There are plenty of well-developed and realistic case studies that offer the reader straightforward explanations of the statistical reasoning used in setting up the problem solution. Ramsey does not just present statistics as facts and numbers; the why's and how's behind the use of specific statistical tools required in case studies and other examples are addressed in a straight forward and simple to understand manner. This contrasts most contemporary introductory statistics texts where it seems there is always an attempt to be the biggest encyclopedia of statistical examples. Ramsey's style of exposition offers the reader the depth and perspective required to facilitate both the current and future statistical requirements of the reader. In short, this is one of the few introductory texts that allow the reader to attain a stable grounding in the field of statistics on one hand, and on the other, will still be a useful reference throughout one's professional career. I highly recommend Ramsey's text as both a starter text and as a reference for those looking to clarify their fundamental statistical queries.

Associate Professor of Economics, East Carolina University.......2002-01-07

This book is a wonderful introductory statistics text. In contrast to the usual extensive approach in which students are exposed to a large cookbook of statistical procedures that end up being memorized 'for the exam,' this text operates on the intensive margin in a successful effort to provide the conscientious student a far deeper introduction to statistical reasoning and practice.

Each chapter contains a large set of exercises and the text comes with a simplified student version of S-Plus. Most of the computational work required for these exercises can be carried out through a menu-driven GUI interface. To help facilitate learning, many worked examples are also provided.

The mathematical requirements include a little beyond what a student should have upon entry into a first calculus course in an American university, i.e., little beyond basic algebra. An appendix explains all the mathematics used in the text.

I enthusiastically recommend this text!

The Elements of Statistics - A Review.......2001-12-19

The Elements of Statistics: with Applications to Economics and the Social Sciences by James B. Ramsey is an innovative and excellent undergraduate level text on the foundations and reasoning of statistics estimation and inference. This book is written for the curious student who is interested in understanding the basics of statistical analysis, the intuition behind statistical and information processing, and the process of decision making based on some data. Most importantly, in this book Ramsey takes the student through a fascinating voyage of discovery. In this voyage, Ramsey devotes significant effort to explaining what are the fundamental rules underlying most data analyses within the social and natural sciences. This is done without requiring much prior knowledge of calculus and with almost no formal mathematics. Ramsey accomplishes this task by building on a large number of real world examples, some of which he re-evaluates at the end of each chapter. By doing so, he allows the reader (student or researcher) to see the real value of the knowledge just acquired in the most recent chapter. That is, "what can I understand now about that specific problem that I could not understand before." In that way the student is going through an on-going learning process. A process that allows one to understand the data by recognizing what is observed and what is not observed, what is random and what is not random, what process may have generated the data, and what one can infer from the data.
To summarize, once Ramsey expresses his philosophy of approaching statistical analyses, he proceeds to teach statistics in a completely new and innovative way. First, unlike existing undergraduate textbooks, Ramsey teaches the students via a "discovery" approach where each step starts with a new set of questions and the students are guided toward discovering the relevant answer, given the information they have. Second, the text is easy to read and is full with real world examples taken from a large number of disciplines. Finally, the book is equipped with complete software (S-Plus) that provides the necessary tool for the students to practice and understand how to work with real data. This is an ideal undergraduate level textbook. It is a very useful statistical text for the open minded and advanced undergraduate student and provides the teacher with a perfect teaching tool. It is highly recommended.

Amos Golan
Research Professor

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Organizational and Personal Changes Which MUST Occur to Enable True Root Cause Discovery.

This book is challenging, 145 page document exploring the organizational dynamics involved in attempting to ingrain a Root Cause MENTALITY throughout an organization. The titles of its chapters are revealing: The Most Important Criteria for Root Cause Discovery-Your ATTITUDE; Buried Under a Cloud of Nonsense; Outside-In Versus Inside-Out - The 2 Forms of Root Cause Discovery;The Mother Source as the Driver of Inculcation; Small, Firm Steps. This book forms the basis for Failsafe's LIGHTHOUSE initiative.

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How to know the aquatic plants (The Pictured key nature series)
G. W Prescott
Manufacturer: W. C. Brown Co
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Binding: Unknown Binding

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ASIN: 0697047741

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This digital document is an article from Journal of Small Business Management, published by International Council of Small Business on July 1, 1997. The length of the article is 3985 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

From the supplier: Bankruptcy in the US has been described as a federal court proceeding initiated voluntarily by the debtor's creditors. Empirical evidence of direct administrative costs of bankruptcy reorganization suggest that administrative costs were significant for many related firms. Moreover, firm size is interrelated with the level of bankruptcy costs.

Citation Details
Title: An investigation of the direct costs of bankruptcy reorganization for closely held firms.
Author: Steven V. Campbell
Publication: Journal of Small Business Management (Refereed)
Date: July 1, 1997
Publisher: International Council of Small Business
Volume: v35 Issue: n3 Page: p21(9)

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Saving Your Business: How to Survive Chapter 11 Bankruptcy and Successfully Reorganize Your Company

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Saving Your Business: How to Survive Chapter 11 Bankruptcy and Successfully Reorganize Your Company
Suzanne Caplan
Manufacturer: Prentice Hall Trade
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Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0138326843

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The Small Business Bankruptcy Kit
Robert L., III Davidson
Manufacturer: John Wiley & Sons
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Small Business Bankruptcy Reorganizations

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Small Business Bankruptcy Reorganizations
James A. Pusateri , Karen S. Kressin , and James J. O'Malley
Manufacturer: Beard Books
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ASIN: 1587982609

Small firm bankruptcy.: An article from: Journal of Small Business Management

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Small firm bankruptcy.: An article from: Journal of Small Business Management
Richard Carter , and Howard Van Auken
Manufacturer: Thomson Gale
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital
ASIN: B000JLQNII
Release Date: 2006-10-13

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This digital document is an article from Journal of Small Business Management, published by Thomson Gale on October 1, 2006. The length of the article is 9269 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Citation Details
Title: Small firm bankruptcy.
Author: Richard Carter
Publication: Journal of Small Business Management (Magazine/Journal)
Date: October 1, 2006
Publisher: Thomson Gale
Volume: 44 Issue: 4 Page: 493(20)

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Small wonder: guiding a small business' reorganization through bankruptcy is no small feat.(Corporate Finance)(Chapter 11): An article from: Leader's Edge

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Small wonder: guiding a small business' reorganization through bankruptcy is no small feat.(Corporate Finance)(Chapter 11): An article from: Leader's Edge
Stephen T. Bobo
Manufacturer: Michigan Association of CPAs
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Binding: Digital

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This digital document is an article from Leader's Edge, published by Michigan Association of CPAs on July 1, 2004. The length of the article is 1326 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Citation Details
Title: Small wonder: guiding a small business' reorganization through bankruptcy is no small feat.(Corporate Finance)(Chapter 11)
Author: Stephen T. Bobo
Publication: Leader's Edge (Magazine/Journal)
Date: July 1, 2004
Publisher: Michigan Association of CPAs
Page: NA

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Professional Home Health execs form new company: An article from: Boulder County Business Report

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Professional Home Health execs form new company: An article from: Boulder County Business Report

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Customer Reviews:

Invaluable checklists and straightforward approach.......2001-06-29

This 126 page book covers service level agreements (SLA) from the perspective of a service provider with external customers, but can also be used as the basis for internal SLAs between IS/IT and end users, or other internal service functions that provide services. Some examples of internal service functions include HR, facilities, etc.

Chapter 1 covers SLAs and what they can and cannot accomplish. Some strong points about this chapter include quality attributes (speed, response and accuracy), process control and points of delivery and delivery mechanisms. While these points apply across the board, they are fundamental to IS/IT service level management, which is one of my technical specialties. I particularly liked the three-page service orientation checklist at the end of the chapter. This checklist alone makes the book a valuable resource for service management practitioners.

Some of the best content in this book is contained in chapter 2, which covers measurement of service availability and quality. The author's experience is underscored by the way he links availability to change and problem management. He also addresses critical component analysis, how service delivery relates to security and contingency planning and other important issues and factors that need to be considered when designing a SLA. This chapter ends with an excellent checklist to be applied to service level quantification with a focus on critical component failure analysis, and a sample customer satisfaction survey that can be tailored and incorporated into your service level management strategy.

Chapter 3 consists of six interesting and insightful pages devoted to how service level agreements can be used in development and creative environments. The perspective is unique in that I have not come across this view in other literature and gleaned a few good ideas from it.

Keys to monitoring and measuring service, Chapter 4's topic, stands out for a number of reasons. First, it is a fast read of sensible and straightforward information, and second, it addresses charging for support services. I also liked the service reporting schematic and sample reports.

The book ends with a short chapter that addresses risks of and alternatives to SLAs and a chapter devoted to a case study. One of the most valuable parts of these final two chapters is a list potential failures and their reasons that can kill or impair an SLA initiative.

There are two appendices: a service level agreement checklist and sample service level agreement. Both are valuable; however, the 12 page SLA checklist is one of the most comprehensive I've seen and an invaluable asset.

This book will compliment the more modern Foundations of Service Level Management by Rick Sturm, et al because the checklists are more comprehensive. Moreover, this book does not wander off into tools like Mr. Sturm's book, making the content nearly timeless. Both books are 5-star works and both belong on any serious service level management practitioner's bookshelf.

Best SLA book I have read........1999-09-24

A complete blue print on SLA and how to go about drafting, implementing and reviewing SLA.

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This primer answers these questions using both general analysis and specific examples. It addresses in particular the needs of policymakers in emerging markets who must formulate and refine policies that affect e-commerce in areas such as telecommunications and finance, international trade and domestic distribution, and taxation and privacy. Companies considering doing business in these economies also will find that the examples of the issues that policymakers face, the different policy approaches that they choose, and the market opportunities that arise as more and more economies around the world embrace global electronic commerce

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Electronic commerce is changing the ways that businesses and consumers interact with each other, the products they create, buy, and sell, and the way that they communicate, learn, and become informed. How can policymakers position their countries and themselves to take advantage of this new environment? How should policymaking adjust to a more global, more networked, and more information-rich marketplace where relationships and jurisdictions between the governments, businesses, and citizens of different countries increasingly overlap? How can governments effectively harness rapidly changing technologies and partner with both domestic and foreign private sectors to reap the greatest benefits for their constituents? This primer answers these questions using both general analysis and specific examples. It addresses in particular the needs of policymakers in emerging markets who must formulate and refine policies that affect e-commerce in areas such as telecommunications and finance, international trade and domestic distribution, and taxation and privacy. Companies considering doing business in these economies also will find that the examples of the issues that policymakers face, the different policy approaches that they choose, and the market opportunities that arise as more and more economies around the world embrace global electronic commerce.

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`Dales pointed out that traditional economic and legal solutions to pollution and resource problems were never going to be satisfactory and that a “third way” was needed. Today, all environmental economists of my generation recognise the debt we owe to Dales' work, as one of the intellectual foundations for emissions trading that began in California in the 1970s and now extends across the world. It is a work of immense influence which deserves reprinting.'

- David Pearce, OBE, CSERGE, University College London and University of East Anglia, UK

In this classic book, originally published in 1968 by University of Toronto Press, John Dales proposed a new policy instrument for tackling pollution problems, namely `markets in pollution rights'. Dales was one of the first economists to put forward such a solution, and in subsequent years a system of emissions trading has evolved which is now a centerpiece in international discussions of how to address the problem of global climate change.

Policymakers around the world are still exploring ways in which the marketable-rights approach may be used to increase the effectiveness of environmental regulation. From this perspective, readers will find this short and extremely readable book of great interest - as a return to the basic idea in its original form and a lucid justification for its continued use.

Customer Reviews:

Among the most important works in the literature........2003-12-22

John Dales's classic book, "Pollution, Property, and Prices" remains as useful and important today as when it was first published in 1968. The book is most famous for the author's elaboration of the theory of cap-and-trade, which has only recently become the regulatory instrument of choice among environmental policy-makers. Dales's book is just as important, however, for recognizing the limitations, as well as the utility, of economic theory for environmental protection. It is,in short, a great book by a very thoughtful scholar. And it is must reading (and re-reading) for any student of environmental policy.

Pollution, Property & Prices : An Essay in Policy-Making & Economics

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Pollution, Property & Prices : An Essay in Policy-Making & Economics
John H. Dales
Manufacturer: University of Toronto Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000HMMRK2

Book Description

A number of tools for environmental analysis and decision support have been developed over time, including life-cycle assessment, substance-flow analysis, environmental impact and risk assessment. Many of these tools have different economic systems - a product, a regional substance-flow, a factory or emission pattern etc.- as their object. This book aims to reconcile and unify the many different tools for environmental analysis and decision-support into one meta-tool.

The subject of this study revolves around two problems: the attribution problem - which environmental problems are to be attributed to which economic activities; and the position problem - what is the relative position of a number of the various tools for environmental decision-support? Both these problems can be resolved by the construction of a general framework and specific methodological steps within the framework. The main focus of this study is on the methodology.

By providing a common framework for topics often treated in isolation this book enables experts from many fields, including scholars of environmental, resource and ecological economics, environmental science as well as researchers and professionals within industrial ecology, to understand the full depth and range of the material.

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