Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting (Advances in Tourism Research)

Book Description

The phenomenal growth of both the world-wide tourism industry and academic interest in tourism over the last thirty years has generated great interest in tourism demand modelling and forecasting from both sectors. However, the tendency for researchers and practitioners engaged in quantitative causal tourism modelling and forecasting to run many regression equations and try to choose the 'best' model based on various parametric and non-parametric criteria has been widely criticised as failing to provide credible results. The aim of this book is to present the recent advances in econometric modelling methodology within the context of tourism demand analysis at a level that is accessible to non-specialists, and to illustrate these new developments with actual tourism applications.
The book begins with an introduction to the fundamentals of tourism demand analysis, before addressing the problems of traditional tourism demand modelling and forecasting, i.e. data mining and spurious regression due to common trends in the time series. Three chapters explore the general-to-specific approach to tourism demand modelling and forecasting, including the use of autoregressive distributed lag processes, cointegration analysis and error correction models. The time varying parameter model together with the use of the Kalman filter as an estimation method is a useful tool for examining the effects of regime shifts on tourism demand elasticities: this is explored next. The panel data approach is introduced as a way of overcoming the problem of estimation and forecasting biases caused by insufficient time series data. The book concludes by evaluating the empirical forecasting performance of the various models and putting forward some general conclusions.

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Forecasting Tourism Demand
Douglas Frechtling
Manufacturer: Butterworth-Heinemann
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0750651709

Book Description

'Forecasting tourism demand' is a text that no tourism professional can afford to be without. The tourism industry has experienced an overwhelming boom over recent years, and being able to predict future trends as accurately as possible is vital in the struggle to stay one step ahead of the competition.

Building on the success of 'Practical Tourism Forecasting' this text looks at 13 methods of forecasting and with a user friendly style, 'Forecasting Tourism Demand' guides the reader through each method, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses and explaining how it can be applied to the tourism industry.

'Forecasting Tourism Demand' employs charts and tables to explain how to:

* plan a forecasting project
* analyse time series and other information
* select the appropriate forecasting model
* use the model for forecasting and evaluate its results

Ideal for marketing managers and strategic planners in business, transportation planners and economic policy makers in government who must project demand for their products among tourists. Executives who rely on forecasts prepared by others will find it invaluable in assisting them to evaluate the validity and reliability of predictions and forecasts. Those engaged in analysing business trends will find it useful in surveying the future of what has been called the largest industry in the world.

User-friendly guide to 13 methods of forecasting and selecting the one for you
Examples from lodging, destination, airline and international tourism sectors
Over 40 case studies illustrating the application of techniques described in the book

Modeling and Forecasting Demand in Tourism

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Modeling and Forecasting Demand in Tourism
Stephen F. Witt , and Christine Witt
Manufacturer: Academic Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0127607404

Book Description

International tourism has grown rapidly over the last twenty years, but the rate of growth has varied considerably from year to year, with some countries experiencing declines in their tourist arrivals. Planning under these circumstances is both extremely difficult and important. In order to plan successfully, accurate forecasts of tourist's flows are required.
This book sets out to compare the accuracy of seven forecasting methods--six univariate time series techniques and econometrics--when applied to international tourism demand data. The estimated parameters in the econometric models also permits an evaluation of the impact of factors such as income, prices, exchange rates and currency restrictions on tourism demand.
Modeling and Forecasting Demand in Tourism is of considerable value and interest to both academics and research students, as well as those practitioners in the fields of tourism, travel, hospitality and consultancy who make decisions or give advice on the basis of forecasts.

Key Features
* Presents wide coverage of forecasting models
* Covers some of the most important international tourism areas: the US, the UK, Germany, and France
* Written by experts in the field of tourism forecasting

Bayesian models for tourism demand forecasting [An article from: Tourism Management]

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Bayesian models for tourism demand forecasting [An article from: Tourism Management]
K.K.F. Wong , H. Song , and K.S. Chon
Manufacturer: Elsevier
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

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ASIN: B000PA9UD8

Book Description

This digital document is a journal article from Tourism Management, published by Elsevier in 2006. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Description:
This study extends the existing forecasting accuracy debate in the tourism literature by examining the forecasting performance of various vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In particular, this study seeks to ascertain whether the introduction of the Bayesian restrictions (priors) to the unrestricted VAR process would lead to an improvement in forecasting performance in terms of achieving a higher degree of accuracy. The empirical results based on a data set on the demand for Hong Kong tourism show that the Bayesian VAR (BVAR) models invariably outperform their unrestricted VAR counterparts. It is noteworthy that the univariate BVAR was found to be the best performing model among all the competing models examined.

Forecasting tourism demand: a cubic polynomial approach [An article from: Tourism Management]

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Forecasting tourism demand: a cubic polynomial approach [An article from: Tourism Management]
F.-L. Chu
Manufacturer: Elsevier
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

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ASIN: B000RQY9L8

Book Description

This digital document is a journal article from Tourism Management, published by Elsevier in 2004. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Description:
This paper examines the accuracy of a forecasting model in predicting international tourism arrivals, as represented by the number of worldwide visitors to Singapore. The cubic polynomial model is employed to forecast the volume of tourist arrivals from January 1989 to July 1990. The results are then compared with studies of the accuracy of forecasts by earlier work. The results demonstrate that the cubic polynomial method generates a slightly higher value of mean absolute percentage errors than that of sine wave nonlinear regression and seasonal-nonseasonal ARIMA. However, the cubic polynomial model has the advantage of generating forecasts with lower cost because of its intrinsic linearity. Finally, the diagnostic tool is applied to identify those predictive errors that manifest unusual features, and which result in deterioration of the mean absolute percentage error as our forecasting horizon expands.

Support vector regression with genetic algorithms in forecasting tourism demand [An article from: Tourism Management]

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Support vector regression with genetic algorithms in forecasting tourism demand [An article from: Tourism Management]
K.-Y. Chen , and C.-H. Wang
Manufacturer: Elsevier
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital
ASIN: B000PAUC5S

Book Description

Tourism forecasting: To combine or not to combine? [An article from: Tourism Management]

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Tourism forecasting: To combine or not to combine? [An article from: Tourism Management]
K.K.F. Wong , H. Song , S.F. Witt , and D.C. Wu
Manufacturer: Elsevier
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital
ASIN: B000PKHYHW

Book Description

This digital document is a journal article from Tourism Management, published by Elsevier in 2007. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Media Library immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

Description:
Existing non-tourism related literature shows that forecast combination can improve forecasting accuracy. This study tests this proposition in the tourism context by examining the efficiency of combining forecasts based on three different combination methods. The data used for this study relate to tourist arrivals in Hong Kong from the top ten tourism generating countries/regions. The forecasts are derived from four different forecasting models: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM), error correction model (ECM) and vector autoregressive (VAR) model. All forecasts are ex post and the empirical results show that the relative performance of combination versus single model forecasts varies according to the origin-destination tourist flow under consideration, which parallels previous findings regarding the relative performance of individual forecasting methods. The results also vary with the combination techniques used. Furthermore, although the combined forecasts do not always outperform the best single model forecasts, almost all the combined forecasts are not outperformed by the worst single model forecasts. This suggests that forecast combination can considerably reduce the risk of forecasting failure. This conclusion also implies that combined forecasts are likely to be preferred to single model forecasts in many practical situations.

Demand Forecasting in Tourism (Bangor Occasional Papers in Economics)

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Demand Forecasting in Tourism (Bangor Occasional Papers in Economics)
Brian H. Archer
Manufacturer: University of Wales Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0708306136

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FORECASTING TOURISM DEMAND
DOUGLAS FRECHTLING
Manufacturer: ELSEVIER SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000N5GDGM

Tourism and the business cycle: Econometric models for the purpose of analysis and forecasting of short-term changes in the demand for tourism

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Tourism and the business cycle: Econometric models for the purpose of analysis and forecasting of short-term changes in the demand for tourism
Stephan Schulmeister
Manufacturer: Austrian Institute for Economic Research
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

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ASIN: B0006DZYAC

Book Description

In the information economy, knowledge is an asset and a currency. The creation of new knowledge, therefore, enhances an organization's position in the marketplace. How do we create new knowledge? We don't do it by learning what is already known. The learning organization is already passe. Instead, we do it by inquirinq, which is a method of bringing tacit knowledge to the forefront of awareneness. The inquiring organization surfaces tacit knowledge, which is what its employees bring to the table--their background, education, experience, character, and judgment--and transforms that knowledge into new, explicit knowledge that can be transferred from one employee to another through conversation. That is true knowledge creation, and this book provides the tools, skills, techniques, and processes for executives and professionals in any field to accomplish this task in today's fluid environment.

Book Description

The preservation of biodiversity is a high priority among biologists, ecologists and environmentalists. The impact that human activities have on biodiversity is clear; however, few studies have focused on the importance of biodiversity to natural and agricultural ecosystems. In fact, many natural species are essential to sustainable agricultural programs. A new school of thought is appreciating the ecological principles and benefits that diversity of natural biota have for humans and the environment. Landscape ecology and agroecology can play a major role in protecting the environment and conserving biological diversity. The practical opportunities for improving the sustainability of agriculture and making it more environmentally sound were discussed at the Symposium on Agroecology and Conservation Issues, from which 22 papers were collected for this volume. Strategies for increasing biodiversity in agricultural landscapes are provided alongsid

Book Description

Several new developments in the field of neuroimmunology with focus on the brain-to-immune system communication have been the incentive for this PIR volume. It covers topics such as brain-immune interactions, the impact of stress on the immune response, pain and immunosuppression, the modulation of inflammation and pain by the sympathetic nervous system, consequences of nerve injury for the immune system, neuronal mechanisms of immune cell recruitment, and the modulation of the immune response by corticotropin-releasing hormone or adenosine. The authors are a unique group of scientists who are all interested in brain-to-immune interactions; however, each from a different perspective. The volume will serve both neurobiologists and immunologists to understand the influence of the central nervous system on peripheral inflammation. Many aspects of this book will also be stimulating for researchers in the pain field.

Book Description

Has the liberalization of the Colombian economy gone too far or not far enough? This second volume of studies on the Colombian economy seeks to shed some light on this difficult question. A variety of issues related to the economic opening or liberalization (commonly referred to as apertura) of Colombia are discussed. The authors' analysis not only improves our understanding of Colombia during a period of dramatic change but also may provide insight into the impact of liberalization throughout Latin America.

Customer Reviews:

Great analysis of Colombia and its economic prospects .......2007-07-11

The 84th installment in the Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis provides a fresh perspective on the economic development of Columbia. The articles that comprise the edition take a look at how Columbia's economy has been opening up and becoming more like a classical liberal market. The book takes several perspectives and does an excellent job on showing how the microlevel is impacting the country along with the relatively good management of the macroeconomic sector. While ISI was experimented with it was quickly stopped and the debt crisis of Latin America really did not effect Columbia. The economics of crime have been a factor impacting the country and the high level of drug use is a concern and a problem. The drug use has a direct correlation to violent crime and drug use in Columbia is very high even compared to OECD countries. The book is very well done and highly recommended for those who want to gain a sense of how Columbia's economic development has gone over the last twenty five years.

Book Description

This comprehensive reference reveals what it takes to succeed in each step of running a design business and managing projects. Covering such topics as planning, ownership, communication, development, and responsibilities, this comprehensive manual offers practical, real-life examples of what works and what doesn't in managing budgets, handling copyrights, dealing with decision-makers, beating deadlines, and negotiating disputes. Five full chapters devoted to the Internet cover Web strategy, planning, design, and construction. Plus, enlightening case histories from three viewpoints-Client Group, Creative Group, and Production Group-give readers a new, fresh understanding of each area of the design process. Designers, managers, and freelancers will find this authoritative guide to be an indispensable resource.

Customer Reviews:

Scary.......2005-12-08

Complete waste of money. Forget the content - layout makes it impossible to read. And it's about design by the way. Don't do it...

Web Commerce Technology Handbook (McGraw-Hill Series on Computer Communication)

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Dated but decent
Not a Stand-alone resource
Informative and thorough, but hopelessly outdated
WEB COMMERCE TECHNOLOGY HANDBOOK
Exhaustively detailed tome

Web Commerce Technology Handbook (McGraw-Hill Series on Computer Communication)
Daniel Minoli , and Emma Minoli
Manufacturer: Computing Mcgraw-Hill
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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Book Description

While books on marketing and advertising on the Internet abound, practical technical guidance is scarce. This is the first book to provide businesses and entrepreneurs with hands-on, technical advice on building a successful Internet commerce center. Covering all of the vital enabling technology in depth, Internet Commerce explores the four revenue models currently in use: Direct sales and marketing of goods and services; sales of advertising space; charging fees for the content accessible through Web sites; and charging fees for online transactions, searches, or links. The book also discusses technical limitations of electronic commerce over today's Internet, and describes successful applications.

Customer Reviews:

Dated but decent.......2003-07-12

This book is very much out of date HOWEVER, it is still interesting and much of this technology is still in use in some form or another. It covers the material decently and with sufficient depth for a working professional.

Not a Stand-alone resource.......2002-05-01

I'd like to echo the previous user's comment about this book being hopelessly outdated. While I understand that information technology moves very quickly these days, there is no excuse for not having a website available where addendums and updates can be posted. That, IMHO, is the more damnable than being outdated. Most of the technologies are old, and the links provided work about 25% of the time.

That being said, it does provide a good academic introduction to some of the mechanisms of e-commerce. The explanations and comparisons of such things as digital signatures and EDI are good. While the newer technology has indeed overtaken the market, they still build on top of the old. So this book will still give you valuable insight and understanding about how the new technologies work. It is not completely worthless, but readers should also refer to more recent texts or resources on the Internet for updated information on the technology.

Informative and thorough, but hopelessly outdated.......2000-06-06

Before you do anything else, look at the publish date of this book. In Internet time, this book is an antique. While very informative regarding the state of technology in early 1997, its relevance is minimal today. As an unintended history of Internet commerce technology, it is interesting, but as an in-depth guide to design and structure of today's solutions it lacks currency.

Some examples:

No reference to DVD-Rom in the discussion of CD-Rom (DVD not commercially available when published); Amazon.com as an afterthought in the discussion of e-commerce players (early in growth cycle); ISDN as the holy grail of internet connectivity (cable and DSL not commercially available)

...and so on. Do yourself a favor and find a book no more than 3-6 months old.

WEB COMMERCE TECHNOLOGY HANDBOOK.......2000-01-19

Internet Resources for Commerc

Exhaustively detailed tome.......1998-11-24

This work is an excellent up to date work covering the various components of e-commerce. It addresses not only the technical security issues regarding e-commerce but the advantages and disadvantages of particular e-commerce platforms and schemes. The author also presents a well thought out road map for the future of web commerce. This borders on being a scholarly work, as it is detailed and well documented. Therefore, I would NOT recommend this book for beginners (such as me) or those who are looking for a how-to book to get them up and running.

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Bankruptcy: Intended as an explanatory treatise on the law and practice of bankruptcy
Albert Gibson
Manufacturer: "Law Notes" Pub. Offices
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

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ASIN: B0006AOB0O

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Gibson & Weldon's Student bankruptcy ;: Intended as an explanatory treatise on the law and practice of bankruptcy
Albert Gibson
Manufacturer: The "Law notes" publishing offices
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

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ASIN: B0008AU3YK

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Gibson & Weldon's student's bankruptcy: Intended as an explanatory treatise on the law and practice of bankruptcy, prepared specially for the use of students
Albert Gibson
Manufacturer: "Law notes" Pub. Off
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

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ASIN: B0008A9CCE

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Gibson & Weldon's Student's bankruptcy: Intended as an explanatory treatise on the law and practice of bankruptcy, prepared specially for the use of students ... and honors examinations of the Law Society
Albert Gibson
Manufacturer: "Law Notes" Pub. Offices
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

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ASIN: B0008BKKXS

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Gibson's & Weldon's Student's bankruptcy: Intended as an explanatory treatise on the law and practice of bankruptcy, prepared specially for the use of ... and honors examinations of the Law Society
Albert Gibson
Manufacturer: "Law Notes" Pub. Offices
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

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ASIN: B0008BKL1O

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Gibson's bankruptcy: Intended as an explanatory treatise on the law and practice of bankruptcy
Albert Gibson
Manufacturer: "Law Notes" Pub. Offices
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

Bankruptcy | Business | Law | Subjects | Books
ASIN: B0008BKL1Y

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The student's bankruptcy: Intended as an explanatory treatise on the law and practice of bankruptcy, prepared specially for the use of students, and more ... and honors examinations of the Law Society
Albert Gibson
Manufacturer: "Law notes" Pub. Off
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding

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ASIN: B000886GXE

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