Book Description
First published in 1954
Book Description
Catastrophic risks are much greater than is commonly appreciated. Collision with an asteroid, runaway global warming, voraciously replicating nanomachines, a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists, and a world-ending accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, are among the possible extinction events that are sufficiently likely to warrant careful study. How should we respond to events that, for a variety of psychological and cultural reasons, we find it hard to wrap our minds around? Posner argues that realism about science and scientists, innovative applications of cost-benefit analysis, a scientifically literate legal profession, unprecedented international cooperation, and a pragmatic attitude toward civil liberties are among the keys to coping effectively with the catastrophic risks.
Customer Reviews:
The Greatest Problems of the 21st Century...Solved!.......2007-03-05
With the emerging trends in healthcare, many of today's young children will be alive in 2100. This would be a remarkable achievement.
Then again, sometime in the next 100 years perhaps the entire human race including all today's children will die violent deaths.
In Catastrophe, US Appeals Court Judge Richard Posner shows that humanity enters the 21st century with a greater chance of annihilation than at any time in human history. Mankind faces new perils that our institutions are not addressing.
Posner does not just warn of dangers. He proposes solutions we can enact today that would reduce risk and improve world security for the next 100 years.
His facts are well researched; his analysis is well thought out. Unfortunately, his writing is heavy. He uses large amounts of hard science, legal theory, and economic analysis.
His major theme is that rapid scientific progress has created perils that our leaders are not addressing.
In a short book, he addresses a large number of doomsday scenarios that would otherwise require years of study.
None of the risks he discusses are likely to happen this year or in any particular year. However, as a group they pose a disturbing risk when looked at over a hundred years.
He collects these horrific events into four groups
1) Natural disasters - This includes asteroids striking the earth, pandemic disease, and huge volcanoes and earthquakes. These have always been around and have caused mass destruction in the past.
The other risks are new to the 21st century.
2) Perils caused by Economic Growth - This includes global warming, resource depletion, loss of biodiversity, and population growth. Posner looks critically at each.
3) Scientific Accidents - These include accidents with robots, artificial intelligence, robotic war machines, genetically modified crops, nanotechnology, and particle accelerators, These all sound like science fiction but Posner uses credible evidence to paint scenarios on how each could destroy the entire human race.
4) Intentional catastrophes - These include nuclear war, biological terror, cyber terror, surveillance, concealment, and encryption. His discussion of biological terror is especially disturbing. He cites evidence that nations, terrorist groups, or even crazed Unabomber type individuals may soon be able to create life forms that can kill billions of people.
This is frightening but Posner does not stop here. He proposes solutions we can work on today to reduce the risk of each catastrophe.
His solutions attempt to reduce each hazard while impairing our current standard of living as little as possible. Each proposal is painful and will disturb many people.
1) Fiscal solutions - He proposes increasing taxes and spending on science to address natural disasters and global warming. He uses economic tools to show that our current policies are inadequate to address these risks. His solutions will lead to a reduced standard of living for all of us.
2) Regulatory solutions -These include an international EPA, specialized science courts, a center for catastrophic risk assessment and response, an international bio-weaponry agency, and catastrophic risk review of new projects. They require international cooperation to work. These proposals will be controversial because they would require national governments like the US, Russia, and China to obey international agencies like the UN. How likely is this?
3) Reduction of civil liberties - As a judge, Posner is careful to defend the US tradition of human rights. However he questions whether the civil liberties of Western societies can continue.
With nuclear or bio-terror, we cannot afford to allow a single mistake. One crazed person can kill millions or perhaps all of us. Given this threat, should we restrict the right of unstable persons to learn dangerous technologies? Can we extend a right to privacy to people with the know how to develop viruses that can kill the entire human race? Should we profile people from certain areas of the world? Does free speech allow us to publish how to make nuclear weapons? Is there a role for torture and threats to families? Being a judge, he explains these ideas clearly and soberly.
4) Education - Posner's solutions are weakest in this areas. He does not trust generalist judges to adjudicate any case involving scientific matters but proposes a special court with judges trained in science.
In an early chapter he shows how the scientific ignorance of some people and the obsession with scientific progress of others work together to make these risks worse. However, he does not recommend improved science education for Presidents, legislators, journalists, or the general public--only judges.
Most important he does not recommend changing science education to emphasize the dangers and ethical responsibilities of scientists. Is it not important for everyone trained in science to understand the danger of what they could achieve and the responsibility to abide by ethical standards? Posner does not mention this.
In a short book, Judge Posner has done an outstanding service in explaining the most important issues confronting us in the 21st century and how they can be solved. However, his ideas should be viewed as intial ideas to stir a public debate not as final solutions. For our children's sake, I encourage everyone to do the heavy research needed to read the book and become active in working toward the best solutions.
OK Survey, but focused for attorneys & politicos.......2006-12-24
I purchased the book looking for interesting insights on catastrophes. I have to say I did not expand my knowledge of catastrophes much by reading the book. I did expand my knowledge of the relation between our legal/political systems and catastrophic defense/scientific research.
I thought Posner did a good job surveying different catastrophes and assigning rough estimations to them. However, I felt the key point of his book was promoting more attorneys learning about science so an intelligent discusssion could be made. I agree with the point...but it was such a recurring theme, it became dull for me, since I am not an attorney.
I had not read a book by Posner before. He is a judge, and I felt it read like a judge wrote it. I.e. in most areas he was very careful to be impartial. But then occasionally he would make a blanket opinion without any substantiation and move on as if he had proved some point. You can see examples of this in the other reviews below. I'll only point out I had different examples.
If you are soft skinned, conservative and liberal alike will probably find points of offense in the book. And I guess that is what surprised me the most, that this is a political book, not a scientific one.
A farrago of fear and frustration.......2005-07-02
The cliche of fearing only those who are afraid surely holds true for this book. Posner, a judge, wants lawyers to sit in judgement of which research should go forward and which curtailed. He has lined up a string of threats we face in terms of "catastrophic" loss of human life. There are bolides cruising in space eager to smash into our planet and repeat on us what one did to the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Physicists tinkering with subatomic particles could trigger a reaction that would shrink the Earth to a sphere 100 metres across. "Bioterrorism" is the next thrust from "America's" off-shore enemies. What to do to counter this litany of disasters? He insists we need a policy to address each of them.
Posner analyses the various challenges to continued human existence. For each threat there is a "risk assessment" examining the probabilities of its occurring. From the assessment, there is a "cost-benefit" calculation to determine how much to spend to prevent the catastrophe. How likely is the impact of another asteroid extinguishing much or all of human life? How much need we spend to deflect it? What is the true cost of the Kyoto protocol? Posner puts dollar values on each of these in terms of likelihood of the event transpiring and the cost of countering it.
Significantly, Posner posits the threats and their solutions to his countrymen. These are "American" problems and must be dealt with in an "American" environment. He patronisingly grants some UN agency involvement on a few issues, but these are limited to areas the UN is already dealing with or ones the USA has disdained. The British pre-emption of interest in rogue asteroid is given a nod, then passed over. Keeping the focus on what the USA must do in countering, Posner ignores the element of his society that must accept or reject these numbers and the costs involved. Even the most clumsy (clumsiest) estimate of cost per taxpayer would have given this analysis some basis in reality. Posner, however, must suspect that the figure would likely be too high for taxpayers to cope with. He concedes the point in his claim that the costs of adhering to Kyoto would be disproportionately high for his countrymen.
There are so many inconsistencies and self-contradictions in this book they defy listing here. He condemns the Kyoto Protocol as too restrictive on one hand and costing the USA too much on the other. He ignores the fact that this Protocol is a beginning, not an end. He also bypasses the reality of his own country being the world's biggest consumer of resources and exporter of greenhouse gases. He condemns foreign students who return to home countries and urges strengthening of restrictions on what they're allowed to study. This in the face of his braggadocio about the high levels of American science and education. That these departing foreign students are taking expertise to solve problems in their own lands seems to have eluded him. He rants about keeping foreign students away from "lethal toxins" and ignores the number of these that occur naturally and cause death or disfigurement in humans and livestock - even in the technologically superior USA. How many "enemies" would be generated by the constraints he proposes? Finally, how he expects lawyers to gain enough expertise in science to sit in judgement of which research should go forward in a nation unable to come to grips with natural selection remains an enigma. It's commendable that Posner raises the list of threats the entire planet faces. His chauvinist solutions bear little relation to the reality of today's world. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]
"Preparing" For The Future.......2005-03-21
Looking out for future risk into the future. For example, asteroids pose a long-term risk hundreds and thousands of years into the future. We have the technology now to map asteroids and safeguard our future. To a large extent this is not being done. There is a lack of scientific enthusiasm to do this.
Global warming is another topic of interest. Glaciers are melting right now. The gravity of the problem is increasing. However, it would be very expensive to do anything about it. So, not much is being done to correct the problem. Even if we reduce emissions into the atmosphere, the build-up is cumulative so that the problem increases even with reduced emisssions. Heavy taxes on CO2 emissions would be scientifically helpful, but politically impossible.
Scientists tend to be either too pessimistic or too optimistic regarding the future. The reality, actually, is somewhere in the middle. Yet, the risks tend to be misstated.
How does the marketplace respond to future risks? Reinsurance companies are very concerned about global warming. The risk is difficult to quantify. Global warming will effect the weather in the future.
The author talks about the risks of terrorism. His position is that terrorism is very difficult to prevent. Our borders may be too porous.
The author covers possible future disasters in this book which include biodiversity loss, sudden global warming, bioterrorists, asteroid impacts, and nuclear meltdowns. The core problem in dealing with these extinction threats is the need to spend large amounts of present resources for speculative future benefits.
Science (C-Span 353/1)
Not a Dog in these Catastrophes.......2005-02-06
Great Book, thoughtful and somewhat idiosyncratic analysis of how we should think about and respond to low probability but very large consequence events.
Works very well paired up with Robert Shillers book "Macro Markets"
Book Description
This digital document is an article from Skeptic (Altadena, CA), published by Skeptics Society & Skeptic Magazine on January 1, 2005. The length of the article is 18280 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.
Citation Details
Title: Catastrophe: the dozen most significant catastrophic risks and what we can do about them.(Excerpt)(Cover Story)
Author: Richard A. Posner
Publication:
Skeptic (Altadena, CA) (Refereed)
Date: January 1, 2005
Publisher: Skeptics Society & Skeptic Magazine
Volume: 11
Issue: 3
Page: 42(22)
Article Type: Cover Story, Excerpt
Distributed by Thomson Gale
Average customer rating:
- historical account of the Texas cattle feeding industry
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Cattle Feeding: A Guide to Management
Manufacturer: Trafton Printing
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
 General
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ASIN: 0962776106 |
Customer Reviews:
historical account of the Texas cattle feeding industry.......1999-03-18
An a amazing account of the birth to present day state of the Texas cattle feeding industry. This book is written by a very astute man who is also a cattle feeder, and offers proof that some things will never change in this industry that goes from boom to bust over and over through time. A must read for anyone in the in business or any hardy business person who enjoys challenges.
Average customer rating:
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Balancing forage supply and demand (Guide)
Christopher D Allison
Manufacturer: New Mexico State University, Cooperative Extension Service
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding
General
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Livestock Management
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ASIN: B0006QI7LC |
Book Description
As a vending operator, you'll enjoy the personal freedom of making money without being there. While you're having dinner, playing with your kids, or going to the ball game, your machines are making a steady, reliable income, automatically! Packed with insider strategies!
Customer Reviews:
The title should be, BUSSINESS PLANS FOR DOPES, along with a brief over view on vending.......2007-07-17
I was very disappointed at how little time the author spent on how to personally find money making locations for your machines. Especially when all of the experts emphasize this to be one of the hardest parts of the business. He spends one vague chapter on this and then has the nerve to say, "Pay Attention. This is probably the most important chapter to this book." After that, the rest of the book talks about information that I have in lots of other books that are much more detailed and better written. For instance, how to write a business plan, business financing, how to incorporate etc. I'm sorry but I wouldn't have bought a book with over 200 pages to find out that half of it is spent on novice stuff like this! I am sure that many of you potential readers have already operated a business before ,like myself, and are already educated on different types of loans and business entities. This is the worst "how to book" I have ever read. I am also shocked at how many of you said it was helpful. Yikes! Can anybody out there recommend a much much better one?
Vending jackpot book delivers and fun to read.......2005-08-21
This book on the vending business is superb. Too much enjoyment after I read this book.
I wish I had this a year ago........2005-08-07
I have 14 machines , and I'm telling you- this book tells the truth. It's basic, and written in simple terms, but if you do the things in this book, you can be successful in vending. I would have saved money if I had read this book when I got started. FWI- I think there's audio CD's for this somewhere...I think Ronnie Talent has a website.
Will save you money on vending.......2005-08-05
It doesn't cover all types of vending, but it covers the two most important things-how to get machines really cheap(this works- I saved hundreds of dollars last month trying this method)and how to get good locations. He has audio stuff too, but I haven't seen it on Amazon. Its on his website and on the Vendingcash website. If you are going to go into vending it's worth it to buy this before you buy machines.
Very disappointed.......2005-08-03
This book is terrible. I've never been in vending before, read this entire book, and learned NOTHING new. I'm going to return it. Not recommended at all.
Book Description
Tomorrow you'll be back at work sitting at your desk...
Think how different you'd feel if you had several thousand dollars sitting in cash machines all over town...
Wouldn't you love to pick up that money?
As a vending operator, you'll enjoy the
personal freedom of making money even when you're not there. Whether you're having dinner, playing with your kids, enjoying a ball game, or staying home watching TV, you machines are out there making a
steady, reliable income--automatically!
The Vending Jackpot is packed with the
insider strategies you need to succeed.
Here are just a few the things that you'll learn from this book:
• Exactly how to start
• How to buy great machines at a discount
• Which machines to buy for the fastest returns
• The most profitable products to sell
• Surefire techniques for getting the highest profit locations
• The myths about vending that you need to know before you get started
• How to continually grow and expand
• Where to get financing to grow your business
• Techniques for making extra money from your existing vending route
Best of all, you can have all this information right now! Vending Jackpot is an e-book in PDF format that can be downloaded right to your computer (and printed right there). There are no shipping or handling charges. You can begin reading the book in 5-10 minutes instead of 5-10 days.
Customer Reviews:
What happened after chapter 13?.......2007-08-22
This book on vending started very well. Lot's of examples and details though mainly on bulk vending which the author had the most experience. For some reason starting on chapter 13 it becomes obvious that the author is taking very generic personal finance information from other sources and simply creating chapters out of it. All in all it felt like I only got 1/2 of a book!
Average customer rating:
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Korean Businesses: Internal and External Industrialization (Studies in Asia Pacific Business)
Chris Rowley
Manufacturer: RoutledgeCurzon
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
Policy & Current Events
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| Management & Leadership
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General
| Asia
| History
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General
| South
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| Asia
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ASIN: 0714649244 |
Book Description
For some time now, the Asian tigers have been viewed by many as a major force leading world economic growth in the coming era. Recent financial crisis, however, has raised questions about the underpinnings and longevity of economic success in Asia, which has led commentators to become sceptical about the much-heralded Korean model, a retreat from hagiography which was undoubtedly salutory and timely. However, critics may have gone too far in their efforts to remove themselves from popular mythology. This volume represents a broader and more historical perspective in order to demonstrate the determinants of Korean economic success, a more balanced view which is long overdue.
Essays in the volume focus on the Korean model of industrialization and internal internationalization, organizational capabilities and management roles, and the disadvantages inherent in the model. The subjects covered include the sources and underpinnings of economic growth and industrialization, corporate catch-up strategies, foreign investment, and the causes of the financial crisis and future possibilities. Links are made to longer-term trends and the sustainability of the Korean model.
Average customer rating:
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European Business Internet Use: The Shift Begins in the Mittelstand
Yankee Group
Manufacturer: MarketResearch.com
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital
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E-Business & Internet
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Yankee Group
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ASIN: B00005R9D5
Release Date: 2000-05-01 |
Book Description
There are now more than 9 million business Internet accounts in Europe, and with e-commerce moving center stage in European corporate strategy, interest in business use of the Internet and IP has never been greater. Much of that interest has been focused on the need for major corporations to retool for e-commerce; the needs of small businesses and start-ups have also attracted attention from service providers. However, relatively little attention has been paid as yet to what Germans call the "Mittelstand" -the middle-sized companies that form the backbone of many European national economies and account for at least 20% of all economic activity. In this, our first pan-European survey of 500 medium-sized corporations, we look at the way these companies are using the Internet and IP networking, and how they are preparing for e-commerce. As in an earlier analysis of medium-sized companies and mobile communications (see our December 1999 Report, "Mobilizing Europe's Mittelstand"), we found that this sector is relatively underserved by suppliers. Although use of the Internet is already nearly universal and most companies have a Web site, they have have taken only tentative steps to move to more complex services, including e-commerce. While there is a clear willingness to outsource many functions to third parties, users are lukewarm about the ability of suppliers to meet their needs. The survey found a clear and strong intent to move toward e-commerce services in the next two years. In a relatively fluid market, those with strong products and marketing will be well placed to take a long-term leadership position as this critical tier of companies prepare to make their choices in this complex market. (Note: All monetary fingures in this Report are in U.S. dollars.)
Download Description
There are now more than 9 million business Internet accounts in Europe, and with e-commerce moving center stage in European corporate strategy, interest in business use of the Internet and IP has never been greater. Much of that interest has been focused on the need for major corporations to retool for e-commerce; the needs of small businesses and start-ups have also attracted attention from service providers. However, relatively little attention has been paid as yet to what Germans call the "Mittelstand" -the middle-sized companies that form the backbone of many European national economies and account for at least 20% of all economic activity. In this, our first pan-European survey of 500 medium-sized corporations, we look at the way these companies are using the Internet and IP networking, and how they are preparing for e-commerce. As in an earlier analysis of medium-sized companies and mobile communications (see our December 1999 Report, "Mobilizing Europe's Mittelstand"), we found that this sector is relatively underserved by suppliers. Although use of the Internet is already nearly universal and most companies have a Web site, they have have taken only tentative steps to move to more complex services, including e-commerce. While there is a clear willingness to outsource many functions to third parties, users are lukewarm about the ability of suppliers to meet their needs. The survey found a clear and strong intent to move toward e-commerce services in the next two years. In a relatively fluid market, those with strong products and marketing will be well placed to take a long-term leadership position as this critical tier of companies prepare to make their choices in this complex market. (Note: All monetary fingures in this Report are in U.S. dollars.)
Book Description
A comprehensive, step by step guide for everyone who wants to own money and lots of it! More importantly, it outlines clear, correct principles for full financial freedom. These tried and true principles can be converted into working reality by implementing the simple money management methods described in this dynamic paperback book.
Customer Reviews:
Self-Control, Not Self-Destuct.......2000-07-18
This book does an excellent job of reiterating the simple truth of getting past any obstacle. Instead of performing a high-wire act, this book recommends a safe and direct way to conquest. Specifically, the book tackles financial accumulation, but the underlying principles can be applied anywhere. Lacks the substance of a true financial guide, though. The book could use more explanation of real investment highways (eg What are mutal funds? How do they differ from other investments?). Nonetheless, it is highly recommmended for anyone looking to get back on their feet.
Focused, simple and hastle free.......2000-01-30
I first read this book in 1994, when I was deep in debt and wondering how to get out. This book gave me specific instructions on how to do that and to move on to financial freedom I enjoy now. It is simple, easy to read and gives you the plan to not only own money, but to own it without the worry that all the "other" investment schemes have built into them. I have since loaned it to my friends, with good reviews, and I periodically re-read it (one of the few books I have read more than once) to keep the focus. GET THE BOOK!
Keep It Simple Stupid.......1999-07-10
Dennis Deaton has foiled the lazy get-rich-quick seekers who want some clever and cynical way to "beat" the system. Deaton has the only way: utter simplicity: it's what you keep that counts. Companies could learn from this too! Deaton has given the simplest of lessons in the best and simplest way possible. His voice in the book is strong and clear, and he does not leave you wondering what to do. You know exactly what to do. If you want to own money instead of owe money, this is the book. This book will drive shallow people crazy. Which is why I like it.
Financial farce!.......1999-05-24
Sure, Deaton has the key to financial freedom: Write a nonsensical book in a preacher's tone and give it a provocative title. Unfortuantely, it is the unsuspecting financial novice who ends up on the short end of the deal. Any words of wisdom that Deaton has to share are lost in his sermon about the acquirement and accumulation. His quest to be funny feels more like an insult.
Pay yourself first and read Dennis Deaton's "Money"........1999-02-11
Dennis Deaton's book "Money" taught me how to stay focused on all the reasons why I work for money. Run a tight ship, but, by all means buy this book.
Books:
- Elite Perceptions of Poverty and Inequality (International Studies in Poverty Research)
- Essays on Philosophical Subjects (Glasgow Edition of the Works and Correspondence of Adam Smit)
- Estimating Trade Elasticities (Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics)
- Fantasy Production: Sexual Economies and Other Philippine Consequences for the New World Order
- Find & Keep Customers for Your Small Business (CCH Business Owner's Toolkit series)
- Florentine Public Finances in the Early Renaissance, 1400-1433 (Harvard Historical Monographs)
- General Equilibrium Analysis: A Micro-Economic Text
- Global Finance and the Macroeconomy
- Globalization and Educational Rights: An Intercivilizational Analysis (Volume in the Sociocultural, Political, and Historical Studies in Education Series)
- Hard Heads, Soft Hearts: Tough-Minded Economics for a Just Society
Books Index
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