Identification Problems in the Social Sciences

Book Description

This book provides a language and a set of tools for finding bounds on the predictions that social and behavioral scientists can logically make from nonexperimental and experimental data. The economist Charles Manski draws on examples from criminology, demography, epidemiology, social psychology, and sociology as well as economics to illustrate this language and to demonstrate the broad usefulness of the tools.

There are many traditional ways to present identification problems in econometrics, sociology, and psychometrics. Some of these are primarily statistical in nature, using concepts such as flat likelihood functions and nondistinct parameter estimates. Manski's strategy is to divorce identification from purely statistical concepts and to present the logic of identification analysis in ways that are accessible to a wide audience in the social and behavioral sciences. In each case, problems are motivated by real examples with real policy importance, the mathematics is kept to a minimum, and the deductions on identifiability are derived giving fresh insights.

Manski begins with the conceptual problem of extrapolating predictions from one population to some new population or to the future. He then analyzes in depth the fundamental selection problem that arises whenever a scientist tries to predict the effects of treatments on outcomes. He carefully specifies assumptions and develops his nonparametric methods of bounding predictions. Manski shows how these tools should be used to investigate common problems such as predicting the effect of family structure on children's outcomes and the effect of policing on crime rates.

Successive chapters deal with topics ranging from the use of experiments to evaluate social programs, to the use of case-control sampling by epidemiologists studying the association of risk factors and disease, to the use of intentions data by demographers seeking to predict future fertility. The book closes by examining two central identification problems in the analysis of social interactions: the classical simultaneity problem of econometrics and the reflection problem faced in analyses of neighborhood and contextual effects.

Customer Reviews:

My book review previously published in American Journal of Sociology.......2005-10-30

Identification Problems in the Social Sciences is a landmark book in social science methodology. No sociologist who takes statistical methods seriously can afford to ignore it. While many other statistical books teach readers how to apply advanced techniques, this book was written with a different objective: it pushes the reader to think hard about what can be learned from observed data alone and in doing so sets the upper limits of statistical reasoning when no or very weak assumptions are invoked.

To empirical researchers like myself who have heavily relied on statistical models for inference, reading this book can be both educational and humbling. It is educational in that the book teaches new ways of setting nonparametric bounds for quantities of interest. Yet it is humbling because Manski shows that the more powerful and sharper statistical results we have become accustomed to seeing and producing essentially depend on stronger assumptions. Thus, Manski forcefully shows the classical tradeoff between robustness and statistical power, although the focus here is not on efficiency but on identifying power. When observed data are thin, it takes strong assumptions to yield sharp results. There is no free information in statistics. Either you collect it, or you assume it.

Many sociologists are already familiar with Manski's earlier methodological contributions, a few of which appeared in sociological journals. An accomplished econometrician who often proves theorems, Manski has stayed a close friend of sociology and sets out to orient this book to a sociological audience. The book is written in plain and lucid English, augmented with relatively simple formulas based on properties of conditional probabilities and inequalities. No high level mathematics is required to read the book. A few simple but real examples in the areas of sociology, demography, criminology, education, and economics greatly facilitate the reading.

By "identification problems" Manski means something broader than the difficulty of identifying simultaneous structural equations. Identification problems are those problems that would not disappear even if the researcher could eliminate sampling error by increasing the sample size to infinity. Thus, Manski isolates a class of problems that are difficult to deal with not because of inadequate data points but because observed data reveal weak information. Besides the classical case of simultaneity, Manski discusses the problems of extrapolation, selection, mixing, response-based sampling, prediction-from-intention, and reflection. Each of these topics is covered in a separate chapter. Although the chapters are closely related and should be read as a whole, some readers will be tempted to read only the chapters most relevant to their interest. If you do so, keep in mind that Chapter 2 on the selection problem and Chapter 7 on the reflection problem are worth reading for all sociology readers.

Manski has worked on the identification problems for some time, and the book draws results from his earlier publications. Sophisticated readers will want to read his other publications that have appeared in journals. However, it would be a mistake to assume that this book is merely a collection of Manski's articles published elsewhere. The book is tightly integrated with a common concern and a common approach. Throughout the book, Manski takes a distinct philosophical stand: he begins with a discussion of what can be learned from the worst-case scenario and then gradually introduces weak assumptions to improve identification. This overtly conservative approach is highly commendable and should be adopted by others in both the teaching and the application of statistical methods.

Manski's solutions to the identification problems are innovative. He breaks away from the conventional wisdom that only point estimates are of interest. Instead, he utilizes available information to furnish nonparametric bounds. Although the bounds may appear too wide to some readers at first sight, I have found them to be quite informative. One needs to keep in mind that Manski is able to bound estimates with no or very weak assumptions. Moreover, he demonstrates that he can substantially tighten bounds at the expense of additional assumptions.

One message that the book clearly conveys is the importance of nonparametric statistics. I concur that sociologists should welcome the new development in nonparametric statistics and make more use of nonparametric methods in their empirical work. However, I am afraid that sociology's road to nonparametric statistics will be bumpy for the time being, as at least two obstacles need to be removed. First, empirical researchers need to make a cultural shift toward presenting results in unconventional forms such as graphics, bounds, and conditional estimates. Second, methodologists (econometricians and statisticians included) need to make nonparametric methods more practical and more routinized. I have in mind the difficulties of running out of cases or making presentations unduly complicated as one adds more dimensions of control.

Fortunately, Manski's book gives us good directions to follow to solve various practical problems in the future. The book is not a technical manual, but a new philosophy of doing statistics in the social sciences. Regardless of your predispositions, Identification Problems in the Social Sciences is a great book to read. Even if you disagree with Manski's solutions, you will still admire the book's elegance and logical clarity. I highly recommend the book.

Little great book.......2005-01-31

(From the back cover) "This book provides a language and a set of tools for finding bounds on the predictions that social and behavioural scientists can logically make from nonexperimental and experimental data. (...) draws on examples from criminology, demography, epidemiology, social psychology, and sociology as well economics to illustrate this language and to demonstrate the broad usefulness of the tools".

This is a little brilliant book on the relation between data, the use of assumptions, and identification of parameters or distributions that social scientists may be interested in. In the words of the author, "this book examines the conditional predictions that can and cannot be made given specified assumptions and empirical evidence". The beauty of this book is indeed its emphasis on the link between maintained assumptions and features of a population that can be identified. Manski has spent a large part of his career emphasizing that results derived from strong arbitrary assumptions do not have much scientific value. In some cases, calculating BOUNDS for parameters of interest can be much better than having a point estimate obtained by "denying" lack of knowledge of important aspects of reality. One lesson you will derive from this book is "we need to develop a greater tolerance for ambiguity".

Here is an example of the many empirical problems dealt with in the book (which is mostly methodological, and hence technical enough to be not suited for a lay reader). Suppose you have a sample of homeless individuals and you want to study the reasons why they may still be homeless some months afterwards. However, months later you only have information on a subset of your initial sample. Without making any assumptions about what causes individuals to exit your sample, what can you learn? Can you learn more if you make assumptions on the causes that lead individuals out of your sample?

Another reviewer has described this book as an introduction to "nonparametric estimation". This is susprising and totally misleading, as there is close to NOTHING in this book about estimation, parametric or otherwise. This book is about identification. That is, the question addressed here is always something like the following: suppose that you have perfect knowledge of certain features of the data, and suppose that you are interested in certain other features of the data. What kind of assumptions do you need to make in order to be able to learn about these other features? How does your ability to learn change when you change the assumptions and/or the initial information? This book will NOT tell you how to do the estimation, or how to estimate variances and confidence intervals. Identification will only tell you if you CAN estimate something, but it does not tell you HOW you can actually estimate it. If you are looking for an introduction to nonparametric ESTIMATION, you should probably look at Pagan and Ullah, which is an excellent introduction.

The book is not too technical, but it does require some prior knowledge of math and especially probability.

Great introduction to nonparametric estimation........2000-06-22

This book is a nonparametric introduction written for social sciences students. This implies that it's light on the mathmetical side. But the nonparametrics are easy to understand anyway. This is a highly recommended book for those who want to formalize their thoughts and want to test that model with real life data but find it difficult to apply classical parametric methods.

THE IDENTIFICATION PROBLEM IN ECONOMETRICS

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THE IDENTIFICATION PROBLEM IN ECONOMETRICS
Franklin M. Fisher
Manufacturer: McGraw Hill Book Company
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
ASIN: 0070210756

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Identification Problem in Econometrics
Franklin M. Fisher
Manufacturer: Krieger Pub Co
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Binding: Hardcover

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The Problem of Identification of the Money Demand Function.: An article from: Journal of Money, Credit & Banking

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The Problem of Identification of the Money Demand Function.: An article from: Journal of Money, Credit & Banking
Charles W. Bischoff , and Halefom Belay
Manufacturer: Ohio State University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Digital

General | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

Book Description

This digital document is an article from Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, published by Ohio State University Press on May 1, 2001. The length of the article is 5060 words. The page length shown above is based on a typical 300-word page. The article is delivered in HTML format and is available in your Amazon.com Digital Locker immediately after purchase. You can view it with any web browser.

From the author: Cooley and LeRoy (1981) have argued that if random shifts in money demand are at least partially accommodated by the Federal Reserve, there is no obvious way to identify the money demand function for the purposes of estimation. We argue that this is not correct, and that identification is in fact straightforward, provided that the monetary authority reacts to at least one variable not in the money demand function. If the monetary authority looks at "everything" in making its policy, this condition is likely to be fulfilled.

Citation Details
Title: The Problem of Identification of the Money Demand Function.
Author: Charles W. Bischoff
Publication: Journal of Money, Credit & Banking (Refereed)
Date: May 1, 2001
Publisher: Ohio State University Press
Volume: 33 Issue: 2 Page: 205

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The identification problem for recursive shock-error models (Stony Brook working papers)

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The identification problem for recursive shock-error models (Stony Brook working papers)
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Manufacturer: Economic Research Bureau, State University of New York [at Stony Brook]
ProductGroup: Book
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USA International Business Publications
Manufacturer: International Business Publications, USA
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We got cranked!

Results oriented, useful tools to build sales

Crank 'Em Up: Brilliant Sales Contests and Bright Ideas to Turn on Your Team and Turn Up Results (Self-Counsel Business)
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Manufacturer: Self-Counsel Press
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Customer Reviews:

We got cranked!.......2000-03-10

We just finished a motivational session with 80 folks from across the country and used one of Bruce Fuller's ideas.... the chapter "The Professor of Antonology".... had terrific fun, got everyone going, we started with an icebreaker then went into the teambuilding sessions.... worked like crazy. And yup... he sez business-gotta-be-fun.... and it was. We were Cranked Up! and heartily recommend his little book..

Results oriented, useful tools to build sales.......1999-04-28

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