The Kondratiev Cycle: A Generational Interpretation

The Kondratiev Cycle: A Generational Interpretation
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What Bear Market

My highest recommendation

pseudo-science presented as science

A valuable contribution to the long-cycle literature

The Kondratiev Cycle: A Generational Interpretation
Michael Alexander
Manufacturer: Writers Club Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

Economic History | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
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Book Description

Many authors have attempted to identify an underlying meaning or pattern to history. Arnold Toynbee wrote of 100 year cycles of war and peace that emerged after the Renaissance. Nikolai Kondratiev wrote of 50 year waves in economic life. Arthur Schlesinger wrote of a recurrent political cycle in American politics. Most recently, William Strauss and Neil Howe have written a generational interpretation of American history.

The Kondratiev Cycle: a generational interpretation provides empirical evidence showing that these cycles are aligned together and so reflect different aspects of an underlying cyclical process. The unified cycle obtained is used to make several predictions for future trends as a test of its validity. If valid, this unification means that those who wish to understand an aspect of the human story, such as economics, must also understand other aspects, such as religious studies, that interact with economics at a deep level.

Customer Reviews:

What Bear Market.......2007-07-31

Buying stocks when this book was published was one of my best investment moves. The Dow recently went over 14,000, about 30% over the Dot Com peak. Since the October 2002 when the Dow was yielding almost 5%, the market is up almost 100%. Money markets certainly did not beat stocks.

Ironically, had you bought high quality - high yield stocks any time after the March 24th 2000, Dot Com peak, you would have easily out performed money market funds. This was during a time when the NADAQ fell almost 90% and 9/11.

Attempting to base the Kondratyev Cycle on demographics or other such foolishness does a huge disservice to Mr. K. Anyone familiar with Schumpeter's work on the Long Wave easily recognizes the signs and the fact the Long Wave once again is right on track.
Mike and I had numerous discussions back in 1998-2000 on the Long Wave. He said if I was right and he was wrong he would issue me a public apology. So far with the Dow making new highs I have yet to receive one.

One should read economics books after they are aged. Reading this one now shows where the author went wrong and validates the Long Wave as having remained a consistent 53.3 years in length with no variation from technology, demographics or globalization.

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My highest recommendation.......2003-04-23

I give my highest recommendation to this book. I found it to be well-researched, very rigorous, and the conclusions very convincing.

As also stated in his previous book "Stock Cycles...", he said (paraphrase) that the true test of the validity of his conclusions is to observe how events in the future unfold. So far, he is right on!!

Michael, if you're reading this, will you please write another book or offer those of us who admire your work a means to keep up with your current thinking?

Jim

pseudo-science presented as science.......2003-04-14

it is fascinating that the K cycles coincide, perhaps coincidentally, with the generational cycle as popularized by a couple pseudo-scientists (strauss and howe). half the book is to explain why the cycle lengths change over time, and explaining away any differences or "the anomaly of the civil war period". the real meat of the argument could be presented - and the "predictions" as well - in a chapter or two. the prediction is simply that the bear market will continue. ok, thanks. while the observation that the K cycles coincide with one of the many theories of generational cycles is appreciated, if the Strauss&Howe cycles had not matched up, he could have merely found some other data to fit the theory of his choosing.

A valuable contribution to the long-cycle literature.......2002-07-09

If successful prediction is a sign of good science, Michael Alexander, who in his previous book "Stock Cycles: Why Stocks Won't Beat Money Markets over the Next Twenty Years" predicted poor stock market returns for twenty years beginning in 2000, has impressive scientific credentials.

In his second book, he synthesizes the theory of stock cycles and innovation waves developed in his first book, with a generational cycle based on the idea of birth cohort peer personalities, a Kondratieff social stress cycle, a world power cycle and a political cycle to describe a single operative cycle that is currently approximately 72 years. The analysis is very quantitative (but fairly easy to follow) and relies quite a bit on statistical significance testing, something that is understandably lacking in most long cycle research (there aren't generally enough cycles to test for statistical significance). Alexander's tying together of several independently constructed cycles to rise to statistical significance is perhaps his most important contribution. But there are several other contributions here including his use of a tool called reduced price that he uses to show that the Kondratieff Cycle that appeared to have ended around mid-century 20th century is actually still operative.

I highly recommend this book for investors, history buffs or anyone who loves a good intellectual puzzle. Some readers may be put off by the more speculative arguments, but the scope of subjects covered here should appeal to almost anyone.

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Customer Reviews:

The Self-Sabotage Syndrome.......2002-04-14

From the moment I started to read this book, I was 'smacked in the face' by the relevence of this book in my life at this "exact juncture" !.

I have just lost a job that I "loved", it was my "home away from home" (I actually used to say that...); my boss was my "best friend", I would do virtually ANYTHING to support and help him in the work place and in his failing personal life. I was terminated because his wife felt we were "too close" after two years of blind loyalty. Terminated ! No notice ! No severance ! Lost my job, my best friend, my source of income, my entire world/life.

READ THIS BOOK IF YOU ARE AN ADULT CHILD !!! I wish I had read it before. I will not be the 'enabler' and the 'fall guy' the next time.

I highly recommend this book to anyone that is an ADULT CHILD and find themselves without a job/sense of self/reason to live/purpose in life because the "job" and "your life" ARE NOT intertwined unless you allow them to be. I did not establish correct "boundries", and coincidentally, my previous "boss/best-friend" is an Adult Child also.

I just ordered the book to be delivered to my previous boss/best friend. Hopefully he will learn from this book as well, and not follow the same patterns.

PRACTICAL SOLUTIONS TO WORK-RELATED PROBLEMS.......2000-09-04

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What an awesome book!!.......2003-12-07

This was the best book I've ever read concerning finances and heavenly treasures. Robert Katz has that special ability to take a difficult subject to make it simply understandable. He brings to light biblical principals that now appear obvious after reading his book. I love his stories. I highly recommend this book to anyone seeking a deeper understanding of God's true purpose in their lives and in their business. P.S. Be sure to get his first book, 'Money Came by the House the Other Day'. This first book will give you detailed information on how to get your personal finacial house in order.

Purpose Driven Spending.......2003-11-05

In a world where so many are looking for life's purpose, "Biblical Roads to Financial Freedom" makes it clear what purpose God has in mind for our finances. It is a "heads up" approach to meaningless spending and materialism. This book doesn't tell you where to get a bandaid for your debt problem, but rather a heart transplant, performed by the Great Physician Himself. This is a "must have" for every family!

True Prosperity.......2003-11-05

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Credibility.......2005-09-26

One of the authors of this book is Mr. Philip Watts, chairman of Shell until 2003. He left the company after it was revealed that under his mandate, Shell has inflated its oil reserves by 20%, with his knowledge and influence. Although the book seems consistent and based on real facts, his presence as an author make it a bit unreliable. I did not realize he is one of the authors. If I knew it, I would never buy it. Check "Chapter 2 - The Right Framework", particulalrly the item "Transparency and Accountability" and then check the reports on Mr Watts' activities and behaviour at Shell. How can one trust on what reads??

Read this book if you want to improve your bottom line.......2004-03-04

Business has always had as its prime responsibility making profits and this is what most stakeholders seek from their investment. It is only when business is convinced that it will make better profits over the long term by being socially and environmentally responsible that we will see the changes that are required to leave a better world to our children. It was therefore like a breath of fresh air to discover this book written by influential businessmen showing that corporate social and environmental practice will improve both the bottom line and the planet. More than 160 companies have joined the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) and are trying to run their companies in the best interests of human society and the natural environment. Emerging from the vision of a small group of business leaders prior to the 1992 Earth Summit, the WBCSD published this book prior to the 2002 Johannesburg Summit. They found that the term 'sustainable development' is unknown to most of the world's inhabitants and that it is mildly annoying to almost all environment actors and thinkers but some corporations were drawn to it because it is not anti-growth and serious economic growth is required to meet the needs of the current population. Moreover, the issues of sustaining a planet are similar to those of sustaining a corporation - primarily managing a balancing act between the short-term and the long-term - and getting it wrong in either direction can mean extinction. Thinking in terms of sustainable development opens up new ways to grow and led to the more business friendly term of 'sustainable growth'.

As the market is good at reflecting short-term economic realities but poor at reflecting long-term economic realities and environmental realities the WBCSD prepared a report for the 1992 Summit calling for full-cost pricing, taxes and tradable permits rather than regulation, phasing out of subsidies, and accounting changes to reflect environmental scarcity. However, adoption of these measures would result in higher prices and the other two pillars of society - civil society and government - needed to accept such a change. Each sector tends to wait on the other; politicians do not want to become unpopular by pushing for higher prices nor do consumers want to spend more. "There will not be real progress until business, government, and civil society team up in new and dynamic partnerships."

Adoption of the phrase 'eco-efficiency' was a conceptual breakthrough that allowed moral and ethical practice to be linked to good business practice and set an agenda of producing more with less - a package that would make companies more competitive. Companies could be more profitable while keeping a human face and as few companies were prepared for consumer's ability to get their concerns into board rooms, managing a company's reputation became a central element in managing a corporation. This led to companies adding an environmental section to their annual financial report and reporting on the triple bottom line - financial, environmental and social. This has already brought about some radical changes. "Companies that once sold paint to car companies now sell the service of painting cars. So where once they improved their bottom line by maximizing cans of paint sold, they now improve the bottom line by minimizing the use of paint per car." DuPont decided that if it wanted its business to be sustainable it had to improve earnings by using fewer raw materials. This lead to the concept of shareholder value added (SVA) per pound of production and the goal of doubling the SVA of Kevlar fiber over the next five years. "Dupont Flooring Services has developed a system to offer certified installation, patented maintenance and end-of-life recycling to the already world-class carpet offering of DuPont Antron." At DuPont the question of whether sustainability improves the bottom line is not asked any more: "That is how we will get our bottom line, and that is how we will create value for our shareholders and for society."

By devoting 2% of its annual capital investment to environmental performance, a Swiss-based company has a vision of being a 'zero-equivalent carbon dioxide emission company' through a 5% pa annual reduction of energy per unit, increased use of alternative and renewable energy and by planting 35,000 hectares of land with trees to compensate for the remaining emissions, with a projected saving of $1 billion between 1994 and 2010. "Thanks to these measures, the planet has been spared the burden of another 100-megawatt power plant; the water we have saved could quench the thirst of 50 million people a year. We are using 28% less electricity and 45% less water than in 1994 for the same output. This translates, with a large increase in volume today, into a saving of $50 million in 2000 alone."

This book has 67 case studies that present current leading edge thinking. For a company that believes that it will remain competitive by neglecting environmental issues, this book will be an eye-opener. For others it is impossible to read this book without coming away with ideas for improving performance and the bottom line.

a persuasive business case.......2003-04-30

In the next society', observes Peter Drucker, 'the biggest challenge for the large company - especially for the multinational-may be its social legitimacy: its values, its missions, its vision.' (quoted on P. 128 of Walking the Talk).
The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) is an association of over 160 large companies who believe that the imperatives of making a profit are compatible with "... [running] their companies in the best interests of human society and the natural environment, now and in the future."
The book seeks to explore the opportunities and problems in doing so, and to describe the progress made over the last ten years. It is overtly evangelical, seeking to recruit more successful businesses (and specifically their CEOs) to the cause of sustainability as the authors define it. The authors are writing within a mental model that believes in the benefits of free markets, globalization, continuing economic growth and in the contemporary model of business. Although they recognize that there are alternative mental models, their primary purpose is not to address these, but to persuade those who share their broad views (which would include the vast majority of business people) that a concern for environmental sustainability and social justice is good business - that pursuit of these wider goals is the best way of ensuring a healthy bottom line now and in the future.
The book is well argued within its framework. More important, it carries the names of three of the world's most senior Chief Executives, which gives it immense clout in its avowed task of persuading other CEOs to joint the sustainability movement.
A 'foundation' chapter, which describes the business case for sustainability, is followed by a brief overview of each of ten key elements in moving toward sustainability, with each chapter illustrated with detailed case studies (significantly, they are nearly all companies and utilities which supply to industrial markets).
In building their case, they identify the dilemmas, and particularly the issue of how to balance concern for the future with prudence in the present. They also note that current market failures (failure to price for 'externalities', perverse subsidies, inappropriate tax regimes) make it more difficult to persuade many companies that pursuit of sustainability is in their best interest. In consequence, they call for partnership with government to correct these problems, and describe experience to date and needs for the future.
The 'ten building blocks' therefore include chapters on The Right Framework - what conditions are needed for business success truly to reflect sustainable operation - and From Dialogue to Partnership - how to enter partnership with the full range of stakeholders.
Too much of the literature on sustainability is taken up with immoderate attack on business and globalization - often with the inference that it is inherently evil - and equally immoderate defence of the (implied) perfection of the present state of globalization and behaviour of companies. It is therefore very refreshing to have an impeccable business source that acknowledges the move to sustainability as important business that is still in its early stages and is prepared to describe the successes, failings, dilemmas and rewards on the journey to sustainability.
Given their objective, there are some important and difficult issues that the authors do not tackle. For example, Hamilton in Growth Fetish, points to:
* the inadequacy of economic measures of progress,
* the importance of a distinction between growth and development and
* the evils of a framework that systematically promotes over-consumption.
These issues need to be argued, and could have very serious implications for business, but they are not the subject of this book.
Those who have a radically different view of the current business system and who disagree with the authors' views on globalization may well see the book as simply offering symptomatic solutions without tackling the real issues. They will none the less take comfort from the fact that community protests about unacceptable business activities (environmental degradation, comfort to repressive regimes, sweatshop labour) clearly send signals that influence the behaviour of corporate decision makers.

A fascinating insight into better business practise........2002-11-24

This book will be of interest to anyone remotely curious about economics, finance, society and progress. It is a concrete and realistic account of how businesses can engage in a medium/long term win-win game, benefiting both sustainable development and companies. It shows the evolution in business practise, and the future trend it is likely to take because of the new dimension of competitively in such troubled times: sustainability.

A clear and transparent account of how to achieve it (and what the past and current attempts are) is made through theoretical definitions of eco-efficiency, corporate social responsibility, the role of innovation, the attempt to control market failures, and make both frameworks and consumer choice allies in achieving more environmentally and socially viable economic growth. Those are illustrated by 66 case studies ranging from all sectors and countries. It dares to face many different scenarios so as to recognise possible costs or tradeoffs, but manages to prove the overwhelming victory of the business case for sustainable development.

The importance of this book, setting the trend for the next 60 years or so, comes from the fact that it was written by credible businessman. Their vision on today's and tomorrow's business practise is sharp. As a student at the London School of Economics, concentrating on how markets can bring more efficient solutions to poverty, corruption and environmental crisis, this book comes in as one of my absolute favourites. It is easy to read, and very actual. Though there aren't any easy answers to the problems it tackles, the book provides an important insight of the role of businesses in achieving sustainable development, and the clear advantages that emanate from doing so.

Read before walking!.......2002-11-18

First of all I should declare my interest and bias: I was involved in the production of the book. But this is also an advantage. I know first hand what the authors wanted to convey - a serious sense of the responsibility and opportunities for business to make globalization and markets work for all and our environment. This book engages in one of the broadest review of the issues of sustainable development as perceived by engaged business leaders. From the "technocratic" approaches to material efficiency and minimizing environmental impacts and risks to the "soft" and daunting issues of fighting poverty through enterprise and wealth creation. It also does not duck the questions of corporate accountability and market reforms.
Plenty of books have covered the issues of globalization but most have an anti-business perspective. Here at last we have a powerful business view.

As business people the authors take a lot of space to provide evidence, from their own organizations and like-minded peers, in the form of case studies. They also look under the top line of financial sustainability indices and provide exclusive statistics of business behavior from the 2002 survey that is at the basis of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index.
Any downside to this book? Yes - It begs the question why the companies next door are not yet following the lead. If they were to "read the talk" would they also "walk the talk"?

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