Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading: A Study in Analytical Economics

Book Description

Besides analyzing stock markets, the book considers a wide range of speculative markets for various items such as real estate, commodities , postage-stamps, antiquarian books. In particular, it highlights the following regularities:(i) During a speculative episode, the price of expensive items increases more than the price of less expensive items. This is referred to as price multiplier effect.(ii) Price peaks for stocks and most commodities on average follow a well-defined pattern that we call the sharp peak - flat through pattern; in contrast real estate price peaks follow a flat peak pattern.(iii) The stocks whose prices experience the strongest increase during a bull market, better resist during the subsequent bear market, an effect referred to as the resilience pattern. Such regularities pave the way for a mathematical theory of speculation. Being mainly empirical, the book is easy to read and does not require technical prerequisites in finance, economics or mathematics.

Customer Reviews:

A prediction about the NASDAQ and other great stories.......2002-10-27

Published in January 2001 this book contains
(p. 176) a prediction about the course of the
NASDAQ that up to now (i.e. 27 October 2002) is
fairly well matched by the actual fall of the
NASDAQ Composite Index over the period 2000-2002.
Strangely enough, that prediction is not based
on a sophisticated stochastic model, but rather
on the observation of previous stock price
peaks such as the one in Paris in 1882, the crash
in Paris in early 1929, the crash in New York in late
1929 and several others.
You may think that such an approach based on the analysis
of recurrent events after all is not different from
what chartists are doing. There is however a big difference.
Here the approach works
because it compares events which
are brought about by similar phenomena.
An example may
help to better understand that point. Obviously, it
would be an hopeless task to base a forecast of tomorrow's
weather on the weather observed on previous days. However,
it does make sense in August
to forecast the average temperature
in New York City six months later for this prediction
is based on
a well-defined phenomenon, namely the rotation of the
Earth around the Sun. Similarly, the author shows that
behind stock price peaks there are
indeed specific recurrent phenomena; note that these
phenomena are not confined to the sole financial sphere
but are deeply rooted in the society as a whole.
The book is not only about stock markets but considers
all kinds of speculative fever whether affecting stocks,
real estate, postage stamps, collector books, sugar, silver
or diamonds. The section about real estate markets
is of particular interest at the present moment. It shows
that real estate price peaks ressemble stock price
peaks in the sense that they are almost symmetrical with
respect to the maximum, but they are smoother and
the shift from the up- to the down-going
phase is gradual instead
of being sudden and abrupt as was the case for the NASDAQ.
At the end of the book the author provides several useful
data sets such as real estate prices in Britain and
Paris, price of individual NYSE stocks during the crash of
1929 and so on.
There is an insightful story on almost every page of this
book. Highly recommended.

Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading A Study in Analytical Economics

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Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading A Study in Analytical Economics
Bertrand M. Roehner
Manufacturer: NY
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
ASIN: B000N7KM1M

Book Description

In the first collection of its kind, Paul Drew and John Heritage bring together the latest advances in the application of conversation analysis to the study of language and interaction of institutional settings.

Customer Reviews:

"Talk at Work" & "Talk AS work".......2002-04-24

This volume collects an excellent set of papers, each concerned with explicating the ways that people, through talk-in-interaction, do institutional work, (and thereby also 'do' or 'achieve' institutions as stable settings). The papers in this volume were written by leaders in the field of conversation analysis, including: Max Atkinson, Jorg Bergman, Graham Button, Steve Clayman, Paul Drew, John Heritage, Gail Jefferson, Douglas Maynard, Emanuel Schegloff, & Don Zimmerman. This book should be read by every serious social scientist.

Talk, Work and Institutional Order: Discourse in Medical, Mediation and Management Settings (Language, Power and Social Process) (Language, Power and Social Process)

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Talk, Work and Institutional Order: Discourse in Medical, Mediation and Management Settings (Language, Power and Social Process) (Language, Power and Social Process)

Manufacturer: Mouton de Gruyter
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Logic & Language | Philosophy | Nonfiction | Subjects | Books

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All German Books | German | Foreign Language Books | Specialty Stores | Books

All Titles | Qualifying Textbooks - Fall 2007 | Stores | Books
Similar Items:

Communication in Medical Care: Interaction Between Primary Care Physicians and Patients (Studies in Interactional Sociolinguistics)

ASIN: 3110157233

Book Description

This book takes an interdisciplinary approach to talk and its role in creating workplace practice and relationships. Analytic tools drawn from ethnography, conversation analysis, interactional sociolinguistics and discourse analysis illuminate a range of workplace discourses from medical, mediation and management settings (e.g., hospital rounds, divorce mediation, enterprise bargaining).

The book consists of fourteen specially commissioned contributions to address the thematic focus of how professional knowledge and identities are constituted in discourse vis-à-vis a given institutional order. These discourse practices shed light on what it is to be a member of a profession and how the lives of both clients and professions are affected by institutional processes. Additionally to both, clients and professions are affected by institutional processes.

In addition to the theoretical insights into workplace discourse and an extended editorial introduction, the final section of the book debates methodological issues and the need to combine disciplinary rigour with diversity.

This book will be a key text for graduate students as well as for lecturers and researchers across a range of disciplines: sociolinguistics, sociology, culture and communication studies, applied linguistics.

Average customer rating:

A Really Enjoyable GOOD Business Book

Restauranteurs and Managers get this book

He cares about his readers as much as his diners

One of the Great Ones

Delicious book on inspired management, filled with tasty tidbits

Setting the Table: The Transforming Power of Hospitality in Business
Danny Meyer
Manufacturer: HarperCollins
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

General | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
Hospitality, Travel & Tourism | Industries & Professions | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
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Small Giants: Companies That Choose to Be Great Instead of Big

At Your Service: A Hands-On Guide to the Professional Dining Room

The Starbucks Experience: 5 Principles for Turning Ordinary Into Extraordinary

Chocolates on the Pillow Aren't Enough: Reinventing The Customer Experience

The Union Square Cafe Cookbook: 160 Favorite Recipes from New York's Acclaimed Restaurant

ASIN: 0060742755
Release Date: 2006-10-03

Amazon.com

Book Description
In October 1985, at age 27, Danny Meyer, with a good idea and scant experience, opened what would become one of New York City's most revered restaurants--Union Square Cafe. Little more than twenty years later, Danny is the CEO of one of the world's most dynamic restaurant organizations, which includes 11 unique dining establishments, each at the top of its game. How has he done it? How has he consistently beaten the odds and set the competitive bar in one of the toughest trades around?

In this landmark book, Danny shares the lessons he's learned while developing the winning recipe for doing the business he calls "enlightened hospitality." This innovative philosophy emphasizes putting the power of hospitality to work in a new and counterintuitive way: The first and most important application of hospitality is to the people who work for you, and then, in descending order of priority, to the guests, the community, the suppliers, and the investors. This way of prioritizing stands the more traditional business models on their heads, but Danny considers it the foundation of every success that he and his restaurants have achieved.

Full of behind-the-scenes history on the creation of Danny's most famous restaurants and the anecdotes, advice, and lessons he has accumulated on his long and ecstatic journey to the top of the American restaurant scene, Setting the Table is a treasure trove of innovative insights that are applicable to any business or organization.

Service with a Smile: Dishing with Danny Meyer

Is the customer always right? According to Danny Meyer, one of America's leading restauranteurs, the answer is no--but "they must always feel heard." Named one of the most influential New Yorkers of 2006 by New York magazine, Meyer, the founder and co-owner of 11 of Manhattan's most influential restaurants, including Union Square Cafe, Gramercy Tavern, Tabla, The Modern, Blue Smoke, and Shake Shack, has penned Setting the Table: The Transforming Power of Hospitality, a business book that reads like food lit and equal part personal memoir. Amazon.com senior editor Brad Thomas Parsons took some time from his daily long-distance day-dreaming of Shake Shack and caught up with the ever-gracious Danny Meyer over e-mail to ask about his new book, the Food Network, his favorite cookbooks, insider tips on dining out, and much more.

Read our Amazon.com interview with Danny Meyer

More from Danny Meyer

Union Square Cafe Cookbook

Setting the Table [Audio CD]

Second Helpings from Union Square Cafe

Amazon.com

First there was IQ, then there was EQ. Now, there's yet another quotient to worry about--AQ. Designed especially for business owners of quickly growing companies, Adversity Quotient draws upon the sciences of psychoneuroimmunology, neurophysiology, and cognitive psychology. As scientifically based as it is, the book manages to be compellingly readable.

Author Paul G. Stoltz, Ph.D., says individual AQs explain why some people, no matter what their intelligence or educational or social background, succeed where others fail. It's been used in workshops for Olympic athletes and at companies including Deloitte & Touche, Minnesota Power, and U.S. West. Defined as the measure of one's resilience and ability to persevere in the face of constant change, stress, and difficulty, AQ is touted as "the most important factor in achieving success." Stoltz also calls it an indicator of one's general ambitiousness, creativity, happiness, energy, and physical and emotional health; he therefore recommends that business executives use the book's guidelines to pinpoint top performers in the workplace.

While the book is filled with acronyms and buzzwords (LEAD, "unconscious incompetence," ARP, and CO2RE among them), the book's tests--reminiscent of Myers-Briggs questionnaires--are fun to take and easy to analyze. Stoltz has given the tests to nearly 8,000 people, so he obviously knows what he's talking about here. He offers specific advice on how to cultivate AQ in employees, and, perhaps even more useful, 22 ways to crush the AQs of your followers. (One of them, "Be consistently inconsistent," could explain many "Dilbert" strips!)

While Stoltz derives many of his ideas from psychologist Abraham Maslow, psychologist and Learned Optimism author Martin Seligman, and 7 Habits of Highly Effective People writer Stephen R. Covey, he gives credit where it's due, and he's done an outstanding job of synthesizing various classic and contemporary theories into one solidly inspirational book.

Book Description

Praise for Adversity Quotient.

"With AQ, Paul Stoltz has done something remarkable: He synthesizes some of the most important information on how we influence our own future and then offers a profound set of observations which teaches us how to thrive in a fast-changing world!"-Joel Barker, President, Infinity, LTD, author of Paradigm Shift.

"Adversity Quotient will show that you have more control over events than you think. The key is changing your beliefs. Believe it or not, that can usually be done in One Minute." -Ken Blanchard, co-author, The One Minute Manager.

"Paul Stoltz's AQ explains why some people, teams, organizations, and societies fail or quit, and how others in the situation persevere and succeed. With this book, anyone or or organization can learn to reroute their AQ and hardwire their brain for success." -Daniel Burrus, author, Technotrends.

"AQ is one of the more important concepts of our time. Paul Stoltz's book provides the direction and tools necessary for putting this idea into practice. It is a must read for anyone interested in personal mastery, leadership effectiveness and/or organizational productivity." -Jim Ericson, Program Director, The Masters Forum.

Customer Reviews:

a stinker.......2001-02-22

This book is a stinker. Here's the deal...think of some catchy metaphor (e.g., life is a climb, life is a portrait, life is a ladder...something like that). Come up with a "theory" around the metaphor (e.g., you can climb or camp when you have a problem, you can copy a picture or create your own, etc.) Do a chapter on each idea (Chapter #1: Climbing, Chapter #2; Camping, etc.). Get friends and family members to "review" the book (favorably of course). If you have success, consider spinoffs like climbing at work, climbing at home, etc. Voila! You're an author and an expert! Now, hit the trail as a motivational speaker.This pretty much explains this one! Save your money and come up with your own book.Heh, maybe YOU can be an author and a motivational speaker!

IQ? EQ?? AQ???.......2001-01-30

FIrst of all, Let's estimate ourselves more strictly to approach. You need to know you are such a hesitater, slow- actioner or risk-taking pal. If you became a hesitater to do something, your life should be encouraged to change. If you are a slow-actioner, throw away your convenience-originated attitude to all the way. Fortunately, if you think you are a risk-taker or would-be-risk-taker, you will have to play a key role to encourage and vigorous one another, right away. There is a good news for us. Adveristy Quotient can be able to improve depending on your efforts while IQ and EQ is more natural. That means if we continue to do our best to develop our AQ, then it allows us a enforced risk-taking attitude to cope all problems we face. Please fill out the AQ test as he directed and analyze your advantage versus disadvantage points. And Make a list what you do today to change your attitude more constructively. Estimate your outcome what points were improved while not, on a regular base. Then make sure that you find out you become a real challenger. Don't forget to share your marvelous experience with your close friends, neighbours, subordinates and senior citizens to help their difficulties.

Worth a look.......2000-06-30

Some of this book is very simplistic if you have taken any psychology. The writing can be repetitive. That said, the assessment test is good, and the explanations of the different components of AQ are useful. I particularly liked the author's explanation of what it means to take ownership in a situation. The LEAD sequence is well explained and easy to use. In short, there are some useful tips and techniques here, particularly for those who work in human services, but the book is overlong given the simplicity of the author's message.

Unseen Change.......2000-03-28

I have read alot of self-help books, but none of them ever "stayed" with me after the last page was turned.

This one is really different.

I have a sometimes nasty, insulting boss. Shortly after reading this book, she pitched an insult at me. For the first time in my life, I was able to look at her, say nothing, and walk away. A couple hours later, not believing what she had seen, she came back and repeated the same insult. I repeated the behavior above. This time, she smiled, with some respect, and walked away.

Shortly after this incident, I was waiting in line in a store I visit frequently. When I got to the counter, the clerk asked, "Well, how was your vacation?" I told her I hadn't been on vacation. She asked, "Then, what's NEW?" I was puzzled by these questions, but then realized that she had seen some change in me I wasn't aware of. I told her that the only new thing in my life was this book. She got very excited and wanted to know all about it. It turns out that she was a Psychology major and had seen something new in me that I didn't even know had happened.

This book seemed to "put it all together" for me.

Hope it will do the same for others who read it.

Very useful book on dealing with all types of adversity.......2000-03-23

Anyone who thinks this book is about a "having a good attitude" or "positive thinking" hasn't read the book.
Stoltz states at the beginning, "It's more important to know how to deal with the negative than to be 'positive.'" This mirrors the I Ching, which says, "The event is not important, but the response to the event is everything." Stoltz says it's not only how we _respond_ to adversity, but how we _perceive_ adversity.
Stoltz breaks down our response to adversity into five categories -- Control (how much control do we perceive over the adverse situation?), Origin (are we to blame for the adverse situation?), Ownership (are we responsible for fixing the adverse situation?), Reach (how far will this adverse situation reach into other areas of my life?), and Endurance (how long will this adverse situation last?). He provides abundant examples (everyday and historical), hypotheticals, and even a test where we can score how we tend to respond to adversity, and improve our response.
He lists 22 helpful ways to _destroy_ the adversity of those around us (#4 -- Model victimhood. Act depressed -- it's contagious; #9 -- Frame success as a freak accident; #19 -- Uproot enthusiasm before it can grow).
Problems with the book? Sure there are. It's a bit padded, especially in the beginning. Much of the book deals with overcoming adversity in business situations. He also criticizes those who decide to "camp" on the hillside instead of always "climbing" to the top of the mountain. I feel we can have success and happiness, not to mention a family life, by "camping," just as I suspect "climber" is another word for "workaholic."
In all, it's a very worthwhile book.

Adversity Quotient, Turning Obstacles Into Opportunities

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Adversity Quotient, Turning Obstacles Into Opportunities
Paul G. Stoltz
Manufacturer: New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1997
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover
ASIN: B000NVCWOS

Book Description

[This book is written in Japanese.]

From the perspective of the spirit, Let Heaven Make Your Fortune will guide you toward true fortune. Learn how to win your protective spirits and the gods of the spiritual world to your side and finally attract good fortune in monetary and other aspects of your life.

Average customer rating:

Very wise advice

Let heaven make your fortune: You can make your fortune
Seizan Fukami
Manufacturer: Tachibana Shuppan
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Unknown Binding
ASIN: 4886922805